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Swiatek vs. Pegula Odds
| Swiatek Odds | -750 |
| Pegula Odds | +500 |
| Over/Under | 18.5 |
| Time | 7:15 a.m. ET |
| Odds via BetMGM. For tips on how to watch tennis, click here. | |
World No. 1 Iga Swiatek faced her first major challenge in the round of 16 against Qinwen Zheng, and now she'll get a bigger test in the form of Jessica Pegula.
Swiatek dropped her first set since Stuttgart, but fought back to defeat an injured Qinwen Zheng 6-7(5), 6-0, 6-2.
How will Swiatek do against the No. 16 seed Pegula?
Let’s take a look at this quarterfinal match.
Swiatek On 32-Match Winning Streak
The Zheng match wasn't easy for Swiatek, who only won 60% of her first-serve points and had to face ten break points.
While Swiatek saved eight of those break points, it shows the pressure that Zheng was able to put on her.
It wasn't all doom-and-gloom for Swiatek, however, as she won 53% of her return points, including 70% on Zheng's second serve. Swiatek managed to break her serve seven times, doing a great job of pressuring the big-serving Zheng.
Swiatek was pressing at times when Zheng hit her with a barrage of huge groundstrokes, although there were other times in the match where Swiatek absorbed the power well.
Unfortunately, once Zheng's thigh injury took hold, she became much more erratic from the baseline.
The win over Zheng was Swiatek's 32nd win in a row, although her set-winning streak was snapped at 20. Even so, Swiatek improved to 13-0 on the clay-court season and is 87-13 on clay in her career.
Overall in this clay season, it was the ninth match in a row that Swiatek won at least 50% of her second-serve return points and broke serve at least five times.
Swiatek's forehand is one of the best shots on the WTA Tour. Her forehand is heavy and hit with astonishing accuracy. Her backhand is rapidly improving, as it's turned into a reliable, steady shot. The Pole's touch shots are also outstanding.
It is important to note that Swiatek has looked stressed out on the court and it seems like the pressure is affecting her.
When facing Danka Kovinic in the third round and against Zheng most recently, Swiatek has been a bit more erratic than she had been and struggled at times to handle the aggressive groundstrokes coming at her from the other side of the net.
Pegula Keeps Winning
Pegula continued her strong clay-court season, coming back from a set down to beat Irina Begu 4-6, 6-2, 6-3.
She was strong behind her first serve, winning 73% of her first-serve points and, while she was broken twice in the match, the American was not broken after the first set.
On return, Pegula did a great job of limiting Begu's first serve, as she only won 60% of the points on her first serve.
In fact, in every one of Pegula's matches this tournament, her opponents have won under 65% of their first serves against her return.
Pegula was very patient in the match against a consistent Begu and waited for her opportunity to strike. However, when Pegula found her opening, she hit with remarkable accuracy.
While Pegula has only won a modest 61% of her professional clay-court matches, she is 12-3 on the dirt this year. Pegula's flatter groundstrokes aren't made for clay courts, but she's adapted well to the clay, showing good rally tolerance and controlled aggression.
Pegula's net game is an underrated part of her game, as she's the world No. 11 in the WTA doubles rankings. Against Begu, Pegula won 10-of-13 points at the net.
The concern for Pegula is that her rally tolerance does decrease when she's forced to rush on clay.
Betting Value
These two recently played in Miami in the midst of Swiatek's winning streak, with the Pole winning 6-2, 7-5.
In the second set, Pegula was able to go toe-to-toe with Swiatek from the baseline in that second set, going up *4-2 , but ultimately she couldn't maintain the controlled aggression necessary to win.
Swiatek's forehand will be the biggest weapon on the court and her backhand is solid, but she's overhit at times in the past couple of matches and it's looked like the stress is finally starting to get to her.
Therefore Pegula should be able to pressure Swiatek from the baseline and force her to overpress.
Pegula also has better control over her groundstrokes than Zheng and won't give away as many free points as Zheng did, which certainly contributed to Swiatek's victory.
Play the total here.
Pick: Over 18.5 games (-135)
