Indian Wells is already delivering and the level of play is through the roof!
I’ve found value on two of Thursday's matchups – Raducanu vs Masarova and Avanesyan vs Dodin.
Read on to find Indian Wells picks for Thursday, March 7.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
Indian Wells Odds, Picks, Predictions
Emma Raducanu (-186) vs Rebeka Masarova (+158)
2 p.m. ET
Emma Raducanu played last in Doha (hard), falling 0-6, 6-7(6) against Anehlina Kalinina in her first match. Raducanu won just 49% of her service points, getting broken five times. The Brit won 37% of her return points, breaking twice.
Raducanu, who has suffered from injuries that have stalled her career, is 3-4 in 2024 on hard courts. However, as a professional, the Brit is an incredible 89-39 on hard. And, with the gritty, high-bouncing hard courts playing like clay, it is worth noting that she's just 6-6 on the dirt. Raducanu hits her spots from the baseline, showcasing good pop on her groundstrokes. She moves well and does an excellent job of anticipating where her opponents are hitting the ball. In addition, Raducanu has a high tennis IQ and stays patient waiting for her opportunity to strike during rallies.
With that said, the Brit doesn't have overwhelming power from the baseline and struggles to get free points on her serve.
Rebeka Masarova qualified for Indian Wells, beating Linda Fruhvirtova 6-1, 7-5 in the final qualifying round. Masarova won 61% of her service points and was broken twice. The Spaniard also won an impressive 54% of her return points, breaking five times.
Masarova is now 4-6 on hard courts this season, but she does have an impressive 82-38 record on the surface for her career. On clay, Masarova is 120-57 as a professional. The Spaniard has a huge first serve and plays aggressively from the baseline, particularly with her forehand. Masarova tries to take time away from her opponents and positions herself well on court. But, Masarova's backhand can breaking down, her rally tolerance is suspect and she's not the best mover.
While Masarova was able to overpower Fruhvirtova, Raducanu has the Czech's defensive skills, but also better offense to pressure Masarova from the baseline and force her on defense more.
Indian Wells qualifying was the first time this season that Masarova had won consecutive matches, as the Spaniard has struggled with her consistency and controlled aggression early this season.
And, against a higher-level, more offensive opponent on these slow, gritty courts, these issues will be exacerbated. And, not to mention that the courts should blunt some of Masarova's power on her serve and from the ground.
Pick: Raducanu -2.5 games (-130 via FanDuel)
Elina Avanesyan (-108) vs Oceane Dodin (-108)
5 p.m. ET
Elina Avanesyan last played in Cluj-Napoca (hard), where she lost 2-6, 7-6(5) 0-2 (ret.) to Anastasija Sevastova. Avanesyan won just 49% of her service points in that match and was broken six times. The Russian won 45% of her return points, breaking on four occasions.
Avanesyan has a 4-4 record on hard courts this year, and is 35-34 on the surface as a professional. However, the Russian is 119-57 on the dirt for her career. Avanesyan gets consistent depth, she's quick and can turn defense into offense. It's extremely difficult to hit through Avanesyan from the baseline given her defensive skills, and she counterpunches effectively as well.
The problem for Avanesyan is her lack of power on serve and from the baseline.
Oceane Dodin last competed in the Aletenkirchen ITF $75k event (hard), reaching the semifinals before falling 6-1, 3-6, 4-6 to Julia Avdeeva. Despite her big serve, Dodin was broken on four occasions. The Frenchwoman did break four times, but just once after the first set.
Dodin, who reached the round of 16 at the Australian Open, is 8-3 on hard courts this season. Dodin has a 280-148 career-record on hard courts, but is just 91-79 on clay. Dodin has a big first serve and plays aggressively from the baseline, hitting a venomous forehand. She's usually in charge of the baseline. However, Dodin is not the best mover and her rally tolerance is suspect, especially when against strong defenders.
On the slow, high-bouncing Indian Wells surface, Avanesyan has the edge. Indian Wells emphasizes rally tolerance, depth, defensive skills and physicality, which all play into the Russian's hands.
Dodin's big groundstrokes should make less of an impact on the gritty surface which, along with Avanesyan's excellent speed and rally tolerance, should lead to many more extended rallies than she would like.
Look for Avanesyan to keep points alive, forcing Dodin to lower the margins on her groundstrokes and for the Frenchwoman's baseline game to eventually collapse.
Pick: Avanesyan ML (-108 via FanDuel)
