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Noskova vs Yastremska Odds
| Noskova Odds | -220 |
| Yastremska Odds | +175 |
| Over/Under | 21.5 (-125 / +100) |
| Time | How to Watch | Tuesday, 8 p.m. ET | ESPN |
| Odds via PointsBet. For tips on how to watch tennis, click here. | |
Linda Noskova was fortunate that Elina Svitolina retired with the Czech leading 3-0 in the first set at the Australian Open.
Now Noskova will face off against Dayana Yastremska, who upset Victoria Azarenka 7-6(6), 6-4 in the round of 16.
Read on for my full Linda Noskova vs Dayana Yastremska pick and expert preview.
Noskova Continues Dream Run
Before beating Svitolina in the round of 16, Noskova picked up a huge upset over World No. 1 Iga Swiatek in the third round. Noskova beat Swiatek 3-6, 6-3, 6-4. In that match, the Czech hit 10 aces, won 62% of her service points and was only broken twice. She also won 38% of her return points, breaking three times.
Noskova was able to rush Swiatek with her big serve and powerful groundstrokes, with the quick conditions certainly helping the Czech's cause. And, while Swiatek is vulnerable to beating overpowered in these circumstances, to have the mental fortitude to finish the match off was a great sign that Noskova is here to stay.
Her big first serve has helped her win 80% of her service games in 2024, 11th-highest on the WTA Tour this year. And she follows up this serve with huge, flatter groundstrokes from both wings, taking control of the baseline with her big hitting.
Noskova is particularly dangerous with her forehand, which she uses to dictate play. In addition, the Czech has a high tennis IQ and can build points, as well.
It's no surprise that Noskova is currently a ridiculous 96-35 on hard courts for her career. Last season, she went 27-12 on the surface.
But, Noskova certainly isn't unbeatable on hard. She has stretches where she sprays unforced errors and her defensive skills are mediocre.
Yastremska Overpowering Opposition
Yastremska won 55% of her service points, including just 41% of her second serves, against Azarenka, getting broken four times. But, she shut down Azarenka's serve, winning 49% of her return points and breaking on five occasions.
For her career, Yastremska has a strong 132-93 record on hard courts. In 2023, the Ukrainian went 23-16 on the surface.
Yastremska particularly likes a quick hard court, which is the case in Melbourne.
She overwhelmed Azarenka, a power player herself, with pace. The Ukrainian controlled the baseline, dragging Azarenka around and forcing her to play defensive, reactive tennis, as opposed to dictating play, as the Belarusian typically does.
The Ukrainian has easy power from both wings, although she's more reliable with her forehand. She positions herself aggressively on court, taking time away from her opposition and imposing her will.
While certainly not a defensive player by nature, Yastremska is quick around the court and athletic. So, while she doesn't like playing defense, Yastremska has the ability to effectively do so.
However, there are times when Yastremska loses control of her groundstrokes and hits plenty of unforced errors, playing undisciplined tennis. But, at the Australian Open, this has been less-so the case, especially since qualifying for the main draw.
Noskova vs Yastremska Pick
Yastremska's ability to yank a power player in Azarenka over off of the baseline and force her to scramble and play defense for much of that match showcased just how overwhelming Yastremska's controlled aggression – when it's clicking – can be.
And this is concerning for Noskova given that she's much more comfortable in offensive positions of the court and is not the best on defense.
Yastremska hits the bigger ball and should force the Czech off of the baseline and into more defensive areas of the court. She should dictate play and be the one forcing the issue.
And, while Noskova hits her spots on serve, Yastremska is returning very well this tournament. Dating back to qualifying (seven matches total), the Ukrainian has won at least 45% of her return points and in six of her seven matches has broken at least five times.
Yastremska should be able to get returns into play and then start forcing herself on offense.
And while I still don't trust Yastremska to not have some periods of the match where she's overhitting, the patience and added control she's added to her groundstrokes makes me confident that she can cover this spread.
Pick: Yastremska +3.5 games (-120)
