The quarterfinals of Madrid have been outstanding so far, and the action continues on Wednesday.
I’ve found value on two fascinating quarterfinal matches — Jessica Pegula vs Veronika Kudermetova and Iga Swiatek vs Petra Martic.
Read on for my Madrid Open picks and predictions.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
WTA Madrid Odds, Picks
Jessica Pegula (-235) vs Veronika Kudermetova (+190)
7 a.m. ET
Jessica Pegula survived a tough test from Martina Trevisan in the round of 16 as she beat the Italian 6-3, 2-6, 6-3. Pegula struggled on serve against Trevisan, winning just 53% of her service points and getting broken six times. The American, however, won 51% of her return points and broke Trevisan on seven occasions.
Pegula is not at her best on clay, but she does have an impressive 111-70 career record on the dirt. The American lacks the heavy groundstrokes that clay tennis often requires, but she gets consistent depth, and the altitude in Madrid gives her groundstrokes some extra pop. There are questions about her serving after facing a combined 25 break points in her last two matches, but she's counteracted this with great returning by breaking 10 times in these matches.
Veronika Kudermetova won a physical round-of-16 battle, defeating Daria Kasatkina 7-5, 1-6, 7-6(2). Kudermetova struggled on serve as she won just 55% of her service points and was broken on six occasions. The Russian could have done better on Kasatkina's weak serve, but she did win 42% of her second-serve return points, breaking four times.
Kudermetova has a strong 82-58 record on clay as a professional. The Russian doesn't have any outstanding weapons, but she hits her spots on serve, moves well and is a solid ball striker. It's hard to push Kudermetova off of the baseline, and she can hit aggressive groundstrokes into precise targets at times. However, Kudermetova's serve looked shaky against Kasatkina, and she can lose her rally tolerance when trying to force aggressive play.
Kudermetova has played a lot of tennis in Madrid, with nearly 8.5 hours of court time so far this week to reach the quarterfinals. She won't have fresh legs coming into this match with Pegula.
This is especially problematic given that Pegula has outstanding fitness, and it's hard to break her down from the baseline. Pegula should turn this into a physical battle by defending and counterpunching effectively. Kudermetova's baseline game, especially given her fatigue, should not hold up, and the Russian should press on her groundstrokes.
While Pegula isn't at her best on clay, Kudermetova just doesn't have the firepower to trouble the American during baseline exchanges.
Pick: Pegula -3.5 games (-122 via FanDuel)
Iga Swiatek (-1600) vs Petra Martic (+960)
2 p.m. ET
Iga Swiatek battled past Ekaterina Alexandrova 6-4, 6-7(3), 6-3 to reach the quarterfinals. Swiatek served fairly well, winning 71% of her service points and getting broken just twice. The Pole did win 54% of her second-serve returns and broke five times, although she only won 30% of her first-serve returns.
Swiatek is now an incredible 99-14 on clay for her career. The quicker Madrid conditions are not ideal for Swiatek because opponents (like Alexandrova) can rush the Pole. However, Swiatek still does a great job of dictating with her heavy forehand and staying solid with her backhand while placing it well. Swiatek's tennis IQ is superb, she moves well, she absorbs pace effectively, and she hits her spots on serve.
Petra Martic shocked Barbora Krejcikova 6-3, 7-6(1) to advance in Madrid. Martic won 62% of her service points and was broken three times. The Croat also won 48% of her return points, including 72% on Krejcikova's second serve, breaking on four occasions.
Martic plays her best tennis on clay, with a 177-95 career record on the dirt. The Croat has a heavy forehand that she utilizes to dictate play from the baseline. The Madrid altitude gives her groundstrokes some extra pop, allowing her to play more aggressively from her backhand wing, as well. Martic understands clay-court point construction by spreading the court and creating openings for herself. Her variety is also fantastic, particularly her cutting backhand slice.
Swiatek should win this, but she looked vulnerable against Alexandrova. The Croat has only dropped one set all week, to Anna Kalinskaya, and has played with excellent controlled aggression.
Martic should use the conditions to rush Swiatek from the baseline, particularly with her forehand. The altitude should give Martic's groundstrokes that extra push to limit the Pole's ability to absorb pace and counterpunch, along with evening the playing field for the player who can control the baseline.
Martic's variety should keep Swiatek off-balance and prevent the match from being a linear slugfest, which would play into Swiatek's favor.
17.5 games is too few in this case.
