The Madrid Open is heating up and the level of play is through the roof!
I’ve found value on two of the matches on April 28 — Trevisan vs Bouchard and Rybakina vs Kalinskaya.
Read on for my Madrid Open picks and predictions.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
WTA Madrid Odds, Picks
Martina Trevisan (-110) vs Eugenie Bouchard (-110)
6:30 a.m. ET
Martina Trevisan most recently played on the quick clay of Stuttgart, retiring down 5-7, 1-1 to Beatriz Haddad Maia. Trevisan won just 53% of her service points, faced 12 break points and was broken three times. The Italian did manage to break twice despite only winning 33% of her return points.
Trevisan has an excellent career-record on clay. The Italian understands clay point construction and manipulates the ball around the court with her heavy, lefty forehand well. Trevisan's forehand can sit up, waiting to be smacked, which can be a problem given the quicker conditions in Madrid. Trevisan's backhand can break down at times and her serve is also not a strength.
Eugenie Bouchard qualified for Madrid and beat Dayana Yastremska 6-7(6), 6-2, 6-2 in the first round. Bouchard won 59% of her service points, but was broken on four occasions. However, the Canadian won 50% of her return points, generating 21 break points and breaking on eight occasions.
Bouchard, who famously stunned Maria Sharapova in Madrid, has an impressive 101-49 record on clay as a professional. She understands how to play in Madrid and consistently finds her range in the altitude. The Canadian hits her spots on serve and plays with controlled aggression from the baseline, particularly with her forehand. And while Bouchard can lose her rally tolerance at times, she's been fairly solid so far this week.
This is a situational play for me. At sea level, Trevisan would likely grind down Bouchard. But, in altitude Bouchard has the weapons offensively to keep the Italian from spinning her web from the baseline.
Trevisan's forehand should sit up in Bouchard's strike zone, allowing the Canadian to tee off and dictate play from the baseline. In addition, Bouchard should target Trevisan's backhand with her powerful groundstrokes, leading to errors and short balls that she can put away.
Pick: Bouchard ML (-110 via FanDuel)
Elena Rybakina (-440) vs Anna Kalinskaya (+330)
7 a.m. ET
Elena Rybakina last played in Stuttgart, where she retired down 1-6, 1-3 to Beatriz Haddad Maia with a lowerback ailment. The injury cleared affected Rybakina's serve, as the normally big-serving Kazakh only won 46% of her service points and was broken four times. In addition, Rybakina won just 38% of her service points and failed to break serve.
Although it's her weakest surface, Rybakina is an impressive 68-34 on clay for her career. The Kazakh has a massive first serve and overpowers her opposition from the baseline with controlled aggression.
Rybakina can use the Madrid altitude to gain even more power from her serve. However, a lower back injury can massively affect her serve, and it will be harder for Rybakina to control of her groundstrokes in the conditions. In addition, Rybakina is not the best mover and can have patches of erratic baseline play.
Anna Kalinskaya defeated Brenda Fruhvirtova 2-6, 6-4, 6-4 to kick off her Madrid campaign. Kalinskaya hit 12 double faults, winning just 56% of her service points and getting broken five times. However, she won over 70% of her first-serve points and was broken just twice in the final two sets. The Russian also won 47% of her second-serve return points and broke on five occasions.
Kalinskaya is a strong clay courter, with a 71-47 professional-record on the dirt. It took Kalinskaya a set to get adjusted to the altitude, but after that her first serve improved. In addition, the Russian dictates baseline play, hitting powerful groundstrokes that cut through the court nicely. Kalinskaya also moves fairly well and can absorb pace effectively.
Rybakina's health is in question and even if she's healthy, she will still need some time to adjust to the conditions. Kalinskaya played solid tennis after the first set against Fruhvirtova, finding the controlled aggression she needed to power past the Czech.
These two recently played in Miami, where Rybakina won a tight three-setter. Kalinskaya showcased in that match that she can go toe-to-toe with Rybakina from the baseline and effectively absorb the Kazakh's power.
Kalinskaya has the offensive abilities to put pressure on Rybakina while still showcasing the defensive skills to force her to work hard from the baseline.
Pick: Kalinskaya +4.5 games (+102 via FanDuel)
