The Madrid Open continues to excite and the action resumes on Thursday!
I’ve found value on two of the April 27 matches — Kvitova vs Niemeier and Garcia vs Putintseva.
Read on for my Madrid Open picks and best bets.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
Madrid Open Odds & Picks
Petra Kvitova (-290) vs Jule Niemeier (+225)
5 a.m. ET
Petra Kvitova last played in Miami, where she beat Elena Rybakina 7-6(14), 6-2 to win the title. Kvitova won an incredible 78% of her service points and was only broken once. The Czech won 52% of her second-serve returns and broke serve on three occasions.
It is worth noting that Kvitova withdrew from Stuttgart with a foot ailment, so her physical health is in question.
Kvitova is a strong 137-60 on clay as a professional. The Czech has a strong first serve and uses her heavy, powerful forehand to dictate play from the baseline, although she plays with power from her backhand wing too. But, at times, Kvitova can lose her rally tolerance and spray errors.
The altitude in Madrid should help her serve, although I worry about her ability to rein in her groundstrokes, especially given that it's her first clay match of the season. Her fitness is also not great, which can be a problem in altitude.
Jule Niemeier has snapped her bad run of form and took down Xinyu Wang 6-4, 6-2 to open Madrid. Niemeier won 62% of her service points and was only broken twice. The German won 53% of her return points, breaking five times.
Niemeier has an impressive 111-52 record on clay for her career. She hits her spots on serve and can play with controlled aggression from the baseline. Niemeier also has excellent variety, keeping her opponents off-balance.
She has already played in Madrid and is back to executing her brand of tennis once again. On the other hand, Kvitova's physical state is in question, it's her first match back on clay and it's in altitude, which she hasn't adjusted to yet.
Niemeier has the power on her serve and groundstrokes to not allow Kvitova to tee off. She was also successful in playing with controlled aggression in altitude against Wang.
The German has the variety to keep Kvitova off-balance and place the ball out of her strike zone. I expect plenty of unforced errors from the Czech in this one.
Pick: Niemeier +4.5 games (-132 via FanDuel)
Caroline Garcia (-195) vs Yulia Putintseva (+155)
11 a.m. ET
Caroline Garcia disappointed in Stuttgart, falling 6-4, 3-6, 3-6 to Anastasia Potapova in the quarterfinals. Garcia won 71% of her first serves, but only 46% of her second serves, getting broken three times. The Frenchwoman won just 32% of return points, breaking once. Garcia was a mess from the baseline in the match.
It must be said, Garcia is a strong clay courter with a 125-84 career-record on the dirt. When she's playing well, Garcia can dominate her opponents with her huge first serve and aggressive groundstrokes. Unfortunately, in recent months the Frenchwoman has gifted her opponents tons of unforced errors. She can hit herself out of matches with erratic, overly-aggressive play.
In addition, it's worth noting that Garcia took an MTO for an abdominal issue against Potapova in Stuttgart.
Yulia Putintseva started strongly in Madrid, beating Claire Liu 6-4, 6-4. Putintseva won 61% of her service points, although she was broken on three occasions. But, the Kazakh won 48% of her return points, including 71% on Liu's second serve, and broke five times.
Putintseva has a strong 145-78 record on clay as a professional. The Kazakh doesn't have overwhelming power, but she is a menace from the baseline. Putintseva moves very well, absorbs pace effectively and counterpunches at a high level. She gets consistent depth on her groundstrokes, often forcing opponents to press on their groundstrokes to attempt to hit through her.
Garcia's physical condition is uncertain and she hasn't been playing her best this season. In recent matches, Garcia has been spraying plenty of unforced errors. And while the altitude should help the Frenchwoman's first serve, it should exacerbate her control woes from the baseline.
Putintseva has already gotten a match under her belt and seems comfortable in the conditions. She is also able to get that "extra ball" back, and should force Garcia to work hard from the baseline.
Given Putintseva's movement and counter-punching, Garcia should press on her groundstrokes – with the unforced errors flowing from her racquet.
Pick: Putintseva +3.5 games (-125 via PointsBet)
