Vondrousova vs Keys Odds
| Vondrousova Odds | +110 |
| Keys Odds | -135 |
| Over/Under | 21.5 (-130 / +102) |
| Time | How to Watch | Wednesday, 7 p.m. ET | ESPN |
| Odds via PointsBet. For tips on how to watch US Open, click here. | |
Marketa Vondrousova came back from a set down to beat Peyton Stearns 6-7(3), 6-3, 6-2 in the round of 16 at the US Open.
But how will Vondrousova fare against Madison Keys, who just defeated No. 3 seed Jessica Pegula 6-3, 6-1 in the round of 16?
Read on for my Marketa Vondrousova vs Madison Keys pick ahead of their US Open clash.
Vondrousova Continues Winning Ways
Vondrousova won 64% of her first serves but only 48% of her second serves, getting broken on four occasions. The Czech was all over Stearns' serve, however, winning 49% of her return points and breaking seven times.
Yet, Vondrousova was far from her best, with her movement looking sluggish and her rally tolerance not near what we expected or saw from her when winning this year's Wimbledon title. She also left too many balls short in the court.
However, Vondrousova was still solid enough from the ground to grind past Stearns, although the arm ailment that cropped up for the Czech in this match is certainly a concern.
Vondrousova is an incredible 40-12 this season overall and 22-8 on hard courts. During the summer hard-court swing, the Czech has posted a 9-2 record. For her career, Vondrousova is an impressive 150-59 on the surface.
The Czech has a heavy lefty forehand that she places well around the court. While opponents can sometimes rush Vondrousova's forehand, she absorbs pace effectively. Vondrousova anticipates where her opponents are going at a high level. She can sometimes place her backhand well, although this wing can break down at times.
Vondrousova is very fit, though, so when her groundstrokes aren't breaking down, she is able to hang in matches for a long time. With that said, Vondrousova certainly didn't look 100% healthy against Stearns.
A strength of Vondrousova's game is her variety. Whether it be her slices, angles or drop shots, the Czech does an excellent job of mixing things up to keep her opposition off-balance.
However, Vondrousova's serves often sit up in the box right in her opponents' strike zones, making her vulnerable to powerful returners.
Keys' Power is Dangerous
Keys was on fire against Pegula. The American served 70% first serves in and won 77% of her first serves, only getting broken once. She also won 53% of her return points, breaking on five occasions.
The former US Open finalist hit 21 winners versus 19 unforced errors in the match, showcasing a level of controlled aggression that should scare the rest of the field. The American dominated from the baseline, taking the racquet out of Pegula's hands. Keys' forehand was especially potent, with Pegula completely overwhelmed by Keys' power.
Keys is now 27-11 overall on the year and 13-7 on hard courts. During the summer hard-court swing, the American is 7-2, although she was just 3-2 coming into the week. In addition, Keys has an incredible 150-59 career-record on hard courts.
She plays a power-based game. Her first serve is a massive weapon, as she is a top-2o player this season in aces, service points won and service games won.
From the ground, Keys has easy power. She's a clean ball striker that can control the baseline from either wing, although her forehand is her better groundstroke. In addition, while Keys can sometimes overhit from the baseline, she has done a great job of playing aggressively without losing her rally tolerance.
Keys does an excellent job of putting pressure on her opponents on return. Even when she misses returns, she's taking big cuts at the ball and forcing her opponents to go for more than they're comfortable with on serve.
Vondrousova vs Keys Pick
Vondrousova did not look completely healthy in her win over Stearns. Her movement was a bit sluggish, she struggled on serve and she was not hitting her spots from the baseline.
This isn't good news when playing Keys in this form. The American is striking the ball very cleanly and with excellent precision this tournament.
Keys won't let Vondrousova get away with leaving balls short and the Czech's margin for error from the baseline will be much smaller, as the American is a more dangerous baseline player than Stearns.
In addition, Vondrousova's serve was not placed well today and with the way Keys is returning, this a bad sign for the Czech. Keys should tee off on Vondrousova's serve and make her very uncomfortable.
She has the raw power to rush Vondrousova from the ground in a way most opponents cannot, which should lead the Czech to leak unforced errors and give her less time to implement her variety.
Pick: Keys ML (-135)
