The round of 16 continues on at the US Open with more fascinating matches on Monday's order of play.
I’ve found betting value on two of the matches for us to exploit.
Read on for my best bets and previews.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing US Open matches.
Jessica Pegula (-128) vs. Petra Kvitova (+105)
12 p.m. ET
Jessica Pegula defeated Yue Yuan 6-2, 6-7(6), 6-0 in the third round. Pegula won 84% of her service points, including 90% on her first serve, only getting broken once all match. She also won 47% of her return points and broke six times.
She is now 9-3 during the summer hard-court swing and 21-11 on hard for the season. Pegula is serving particularly well this tournament. The American is winning 83% of her first-serve points, and she's backing up her big serve with consistent depth on her groundstrokes. Pegula can also hit pinpoint targets from the baseline and is very good moving forward.
Although she was lucky to receive a walkover in the previous round, Petra Kvitova saved two match points in beating Garbine Muguruza 5-7, 6-3, 7-6(10) to reach the round of 16. Kvitova won 80% of her first-serve points and hit 14 aces in the match. However, Kvitova did have 12 double faults and only won 38% of her second serves.
On return, Kvitova won a mediocre 35% of her return points, but was able to break three times.
Kvitova made the Cincinnati final in her last tournament and is now 16-10 on hard courts in 2022. She plays with sustained aggression from the baseline, trying to take the initiative early in points and dominate with her first serve and forehand. She is not quite the player this season that she has been in the past, however. Kvitova is slower around the court and more erratic.
Pegula is consistent enough from the baseline and getting enough depth on her shots where Kvitova will struggle to find opportunities to attack . The Czech won't get the short balls she's gotten in her previous matches and will have to really press on her groundstrokes to make headway in rallies.
Kvitova is known for her big first serve, but with the way Pegula is serving, Kvitova will not have the edge there. Pegula has better second-serve numbers, as well, which is a good sign for the American.
Pick: Pegula ML (-128 via FanDuel)
Victoria Azarenka (-115) vs. Karolina Pliskova (-110)
2:15 p.m. ET
Victoria Azarenka beat an overmatched Petra Martic 6-3, 6-0 to reach the round of 16. Azarenka won 73% of her first serves and was only broken once all match. The Belarusian also won 55% of her return points, including 50% on Martic's first serve.
She is now 6-2 during the summer hard-court swing and 14-7 on the surface for the year. Azarenka tries to dictate from the baseline, playing aggressive tennis from both wings, but especially the forehand side. Azarenka's game, however, is a bit more streaky than it was in years past.
Karolina Pliskova came back from a set down to defeat Belinda Bencic 5-7, 6-4, 6-3. It was not Pliskova's best serving day as she was broken six times. However, that was due in large part to Bencic's aggressive returning.
Pliskova's form has been improving, as she's now 9-3 during the summer hard-court swing. The former US Open finalist is now 365-191 as a professional on hard courts. The Czech is known for her big first serve, but where she's been thriving this week is from the baseline, playing with controlled aggression, and her movement has been better than usual.
The fact that Pliskova beat a good baseline player in Bencic while serving so poorly shows how outstanding her return and baseline game was. She's more reliable than Azarenka, who has been more hit-or-miss from the baseline. This was shown during her drastic second-set drop in level during her first-round match against Ashlyn Krueger.
Pliskova's overall Elo Rating is also 43.2 points better than Azarenka's. Her hard-court Elo is 54.7 points better than the Belarusian's.
Pick: Pliskova ML (-110 via BetMGM)
