The US Open round of 16 continues with more scintillating matchups!
I’ve found value on two of Monday's matches: Wozniacki vs Haddad Maia and Swiatek vs Samsonova.
Read on to find tennis picks for Monday, September 2.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing US Open tennis odds.
Monday US Open Schedule, Tennis Picks
Caroline Wozniacki (-111) vs Beatriz Haddad Maia (-108)
3 p.m. ET
Caroline Wozniacki routinely beat Jessika Ponchet 6-3, 6-2 to advance in New York. Wozniacki won 45% of her return points and 78% of her service points, not facing a break point. The Dane hit 20 winners against eight unforced errors, as well.
Wozniacki, a two-time US Open finalist, is 10-6 this season on hard courts. The 34-year old veteran has a strong 468-186 career-record on the surface. Wozniacki is incredibly consistent and places the ball beautifully, getting excellent depth. The Dane has a high tennis IQ and is quick, defending and counterpunching at a high level. She spreads the court well and can dictate with her backhand.
Wozniacki has a bit less control over her forehand, though, and her serve isn't very threatening.
Beatriz Haddad Maia comfortably defeated Anna Kalinskaya 6-3, 6-1 in the third round. The Brazilian won 53% of her return points, 61% of her service points and was only broken once. However, Haddad Maia only hit 12 winners versus 16 unforced errors.
Haddad Maia is only 15-11 on hard courts this year, but is 7-1 across her last eight matches. As a professional, the 28-year old is a strong 223-115 on hard. Haddad Maia has a well-placed serve and dictates with her heavy, lefty forehand. She anticipates well, is consistent and gets decent depth, although less-so when she's lacking confidence.
But, the Brazilian's backhand breaks down under pressure and she's lost some of the physicality and rally tolerance that she had in the past.
Haddad Maia also has the issue of her lefty forehand going cross-court right into Wozniacki's strength, her backhand. And Haddad Maia should find it difficult, no matter what wing, to hit through Wozniacki's defense.
Haddad Maia doesn't have the physicality and consistency to outlast Wozniacki either.
In addition, the Dane has the tennis IQ and point construction skills to understand the right moments to target the Brazilian's backhand, which should be the weakest shot on the court.
Pick: Wozniacki ML (-111 via FanDuel)
Iga Swiatek (-950) vs Liudmila Samsonova (+610)
7 p.m. ET
Iga Swiatek took down Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova 6-4, 6-2 to advance in Flushing Meadows. Swiatek won 46% of her return points and 75% of her service points, not facing a break point. The Pole hit 19 winners versus nine unforced errors.
Swiatek, who won this tournament in 2022, has an impressive 25-4 record on hard courts in 2024. For her career, Swiatek is 180-46 on the surface. Swiatek has the second-highest percentage of service points and service games won this season. And the 23-year old follows up her serve with her heavy, powerful forehand that allows her to dictate play. Swiatek moves well and constructs points effectively. She has a high tennis IQ and rally tolerance.
Swiatek's backhand is not as sturdy as it once was, though, and the Pole is vulnerable to getting rushed during baseline exchanges.
Liudmila Samsonova destroyed Ashlyn Krueger 6-1, 6-1 in an incredible third-round performance. Samsonova 56% of her return points, 81% of her service points and didn't face a break point. The Russian struck nine winners against four unforced errors.
Samsonova is just 12-11 on hard courts this season, but is 8-2 in completed matches during the summer hard-court swing. The 25-year old is a strong 147-86 on hard for her career. Samsonova has hit the seventh-highest number of aces (205) on the WTA Tour in 2024. From the baseline, the Russian positions herself aggressively and takes time away from her opponents. She is particularly dominant with her powerful forehand.
However, Samsonova loses her rally tolerance at times, especially on her backhand side.
With Samsonova in good form, this is a dangerous matchup for Swiatek. As was the case last year against Ostapenko, Swiatek is uncomfortable against bigger ball strikers who can rush Swiatek, which doesn't allow her to dominate with her forehand.
Samsonova has the power to do this when in good form (as she is now). Her huge serve should give Swiatek less opportunities to break, which puts more pressure on the Pole's service games.
Swiatek is most comfortable when she is the aggressor, spreading the court and dictating with her forehand. Samsonova, with her current level of controlled aggression, should rip this baseline control from Swiatek's arms, forcing her to defend much more than she would want.
Pick: Samsonova +5.5 games (+100 via FanDuel)
