The US Open round of 16 continues with more amazing matches!
I’ve found value on two of Monday's matchups: Muchova vs Paolini and Pegula vs Shnaider.
Read on to find Monday US Open tennis picks for Monday, September 2.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing US Open tennis odds.'
US Open Tennis Picks
Karolina Muchova (-150) vs Jasmine Paolini (+115)
11 a.m. ET
Karolina Muchova comfortably defeated Anastasia Potapova 6-4, 6-2 to advance in Flushing Meadows. The Czech won 47% of her return points, 77% of her service points and wasn't broken. Muchova hasn't dropped a set so far in New York.
While Muchova only played in Cincinnati (second-round defeat to Jessica Pegula) during the summer hard-court swing, she has an impressive 144-67 career-record on the surface. The 28-year old places her serve well and dictate play with her precise forehand. Muchova's variety is outstanding. She hits crisp volleys, a cutting backhand slice and incredible drop shots.
Sometimes, however, Muchova has too many options and struggles with shot selection.
Jasmine Paolini dismissed Yulia Putintseva 6-3, 6-4 in the third round. The Italian won 64% of her service points, 48% of her return points and hit 22 winners against 23 unforced errors. Putintseva tested Paolini's aggressive groundstrokes and she passed the test.
Paolini is 32-14 overall this season, including a 15-7 mark on hard courts. She's improved upon her 144-121 professional-record on hard entering 2024. Paolini's serve is fairly powerful and she's transformed her forehand into a bigger weapon than before. The Italian is still quick and defends well, but she's added more offense to her game, including more confident net play.
But, Paolini's backhand still breaks down under pressure and she struggles with balls outside of her strike, especially out wide.
Muchova has more ways to hurt Paolini than vise versa. Despite Paolini's offensive improvements, Muchova has the bigger weapons while also not relying on her aggressive groundstrokes as much as Paolini.
Muchova has the rally tolerance to hang with Paolini in longer rallies and the weapons, along with the tennis IQ, to keep the ball on the Italian's backhand, the weakest shot on the court.
And Muchova's variety, whether it be her angles or backhand slice, should keep the ball out of Paolini's strike zone, leading to plenty of unforced errors.
US Open Pick: Muchova -1.5 games (-130 via BetMGM)
Jessica Pegula (-250) vs Diana Shnaider (+205)
12 p.m. ET
Jessica Pegula defeated Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 6-3, 6-3 to advance to the round of 16. Pegula won 50% of her return points, 89% of her first serves and was broken just once. The American is now 12-1 on hard courts this summer, having not dropped a set so far this week.
Pegula is now 22-5 on hard courts in 2024, with a strong 287-148 professional-record on the surface. The 30-year old doesn't do anything spectacularly, but she has a high-level, all-around game. Pegula his her spots on serve and is very solid, hitting with high levels of precisions. In addition, the American has strong anticipation skills and is comfortable moving forward.
Pegula lacks the power to keep up with elite ball strikers, though, not having a "signature shot" to rely on. And Pegula can play too safe under pressure, as well.
Diana Shnaider eviscerated Sara Errani 6-2, 6-2 in the third round. Shnaider won 69% of her service points, 53% of her return points and hit 31 winners against 20 unforced errors. The Russian's patience was key in this match.
Shnaider is playing incredible tennis on hard courts, having gone 22-9 this season on the surface. The 20-year old is 49-29 for her career on hard. She has a big, lefty first serve and huge groundstrokes that dictate play. Shnaider's forehand is particularly lethal, dominating from that wing, especially when she goes inside-out.
While Shnaider is not quick, she does anticipate fairly effectively. And she's making improvements in raising her rally tolerance, although she's not completely there yet, especially with her backhand.
Pegula comfortably won when these two met in Toronto a few weeks ago, but Shnaider was fatigued in that match.
Shnaider's forehand, in its current form, should be the best shot on the court. I expect Shnaider to overwhelm Pegula with pace in a similar fashion to Madison Keys in this same round last season.
This matchup is distinctly worrisome given how Pegula tends to tighten up and play safer tennis during the second week of Slams, which should give Shnaider more time and space to dictate.
This match will be decided by Shnaider's power and, given that her winner/unforced error ratio is +19 in this tournament, I like the Russian to deliver, at least for a set.
US Open Pick: Shnaider to win a set (-144 via FanDuel)
