The first round of Wimbledon has arrived and we have some amazing matches on deck for Monday!
I’ve found value on two of Monday's matchups — Yuan – Rus and Kasatkina – Zhang.
Read on for my Monday Wimbledon picks.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
Monday Wimbledon Picks
Yue Yuan (-210) vs Arantxa Rus (+160)
8 a.m. ET
Yue Yuan has gone just 2-3 on grass this season, which includes a three-set loss to eventual champion Daria Kasatkina in the round of 16 in Eastbourne this past week. Yuan has a solid 9-8 record on grass as a professional and has been solid overall so far in 2024, going 21-15 with a WTA title in Austin (hard).
Yuan's game should work fairly well on grass. She is an aggressive player, taking the initiative in rallies, trying to win the battle of court positioning and punishing anything short in the court. The Chinese's forehand is her biggest weapon, although she hits with good pop from both wings. And the 25-year old can immediately gain the advantage in her service games with her big first serves.
While Yuan's rally tolerance is still a work in progress, she has all of the components to be successful on grass.
Arantxa Rus is just 1-4 on grass in 2024, having failed to win a main-draw match on the surface this year. This is the norm for Rus on grass, though, as she has just an 18-31 career-mark on grass.
Rus' game doesn't adapt well nearly as well to the grass as it does to the clay, in which the Dutch has a 68% winning percentage. Her heavy, lefty forehand sits up on grass, waiting to be attacked. And while her flatter backhand can cut through the court, she's less solid from this wing. Opponents can wait out the eventual backhand error that will fly off of Rus' racquet.
And the 33-year old struggles to effectively move on the surface, looking much more comfortable sliding around the dirt.
So, we have a younger, yet still fairly experienced, more attack-oriented player going up against an older player whose game suits the clay much more.
Yuan has the service edge, the baseline power advantage and can flatten out her groundstrokes while maintaining her rally tolerance in a way that the Dutch cannot.
And the Rus' heavy lefty forehand into Yuan's weakness in her backhand even loses some effectiveness, given that topspin is somewhat-neutralized on grass.
Pick: Yuan -3.5 games (-110 via BetMGM)
Daria Kasatkina (-2800) vs Shuai Zhang (+1160)
8 a.m. ET
Daria Kasatkina is coming off of an Eastbourne title, having beaten Leylah Fernandez to lift the trophy in England. The Russian is now 6-1 on grass this year, with a strong 33-17 professional-record on the surface.
While Kasatkina's game is better-suited for clay, she has adapted well to the grass. Kasatkina is talented enough that she's able to maintain her rally tolerance, consistent depth and world-class placement even on grass. The 27-year old defends well on the surface, in part due to her extraordinary anticipation.
Kasatkina's forehand is heavy and can sit up on grass, but she still places it well and she can hit with controlled aggression with her flatter backhand, as well.
There's just a lack of power to Kasatkina's game that can burn her against high-level opposition.
Shuai Zhang, however, is not a high-level opponent right now. While Zhang has a solid 36-36 career-mark on grass, she hasn't played on grass this season. And Zhang is 0-4 on the year overall, after having gone 4-19 across all surface in 2023, including an 0-4 record on grass last year.
Zhang is known for her big first serve and huge forehand that allow her to dictate play. But even in her last match, in the Madrid altitude, the Chinese managed just five games against against an undercooked Shelby Rogers.
The 35-year old has lost her rally tolerance and controlled aggression, trying to hit with pace, yet spraying groundstrokes far too often when attempting to play aggressively. And, while her first serve has long-been recognized as a weapon, Zhang hasn't won 65% of her first serves in any of her four matches this season thus far.
In addition, movement has never been a strength for the Chinese.
Therefore, we have an athletic, consistent, physical player who defends and counterpunches on grass. On the other hand, there's an aging, less-mobile player who struggles to keep the ball in the court.
This certainly sounds like a mismatch to me, especially given Kasatkina's excellent form. Not to mention that the Russian is brimming with confidence.
