Jabeur vs. Maria Odds
| Jabeur Odds | -750 |
| Maria Odds | +500 |
| Over/Under | 18.5 |
| Time | TV | 8:30 a.m. ET | ESPN/ESPN+ |
| Odds via BetMGM. For tips on how to watch tennis, click here. | |
Ons Jabeur finished her quarterfinal victory over Marie Bouzkova in strong fashion, defeating the Czech 3-6, 6-1, 6-1. Jabeur will look to ride that momentum in her semifinal matchup.
However, Tatjana Maria, who came back from a set down to beat fellow German Jule Niemeier, has other plans in mind.
Let’s break down this fascinating semifinal matchup.
Jabeur Continuing Fantastic Grass Season
Jabeur won 67% of her first-serve points against Bouzkova and was only broken once after the first set. On return, she won 53% of her return points, including 55% on Bouzkova's first serve. This allowed Jabeur to break Bouzkova six times.
Jabeur was not afraid to come to the net against the Czech, winning 21-of-32 net points. Overall, Jabeur hit 30 winners compared to 27 unforced errors, controlling the baseline well in the second and third sets.
In every match this tournament, Jabeur held her opponents to under 65% of their first serves won and in every match but one, she won at least two-thirds of her first serve points.
Jabeur has had to hit through Elise Mertens in the round of 16 and now Bouzkova in the quarterfinals, which is not an easy feat. It shows that her rally tolerance and controlled aggression are at a high level.
Her 3-6 set to Bouzkova was the first set she'd dropped all tournament. In fact, the Tunisian had won 13 sets in a row on grass coming into her quarterfinal showdown with Bouzkova, all on grass. Overall, Jabeur is 10-0 on grass for the season, winning a warmup tournament in Berlin before coming to London.
Jabeur is now an astonishing 59-16 on grass for her career. Her game works very well on the surface, as she has hits her spots on serve and has a cutting backhand slice that stays low on the grass.
In addition, Jabeur's forehand can control the baseline well and, when opponents are least expecting it, she can pull out her perfect drop shots.
However, Jabeur is not the best at keeping her nerve, and this will be the biggest match of her career.
Maria Slicing Through Her Opposition
Maria returned well in her victory over Niemeier. She won 60% of her second-serve return points and broke serve five times. She won 67% of her own first serves.
The German was persistent in attacking the net, winning 29-of-45 net points. Maria has come to the net over 25 times in four of her five matches in London.
She has also won at least 65% of her first-serve points during every match at Wimbledon.
Maria has had a brutal road to the semifinals. She's beaten Sorana Cirstea, Maria Sakkari, Jelena Ostapenko and now Niemeier in succession. While Maria hit a tournament-high (for her) 37 unforced errors yesterday, she's still finding ways to win.
Maria has a 56-26 grass record on as a professional, including 10-4 this season. Her game works very well on the surface, as she is slice-dominant from both wings. She also directs her slices well around the court and at different depths, as well.
This, along with Maria's ability to attack the net behind her slices, makes her a very tricky opponent to face. Maria also has a strong first serve which further puts pressure on opponents.
However, against Niemeier, Maria was more erratic than she had been, looking nervous on the court. In addition, Maria is not the fastest player on court.
Betting Value
Having seen Jabeur handle Karolina Muchova – who has a strong slice game and good variety – comfortably in Berlin, I'm not too worried about her ability to handle Maria's game.
Jabeur's forehand is powerful enough to control the baseline and keep Maria behind the baseline, keeping the German from coming forwards as easily.
In addition, Jabeur will take Maria out of her comfort zone when hitting perfect drop shots and she will take advantage of her mediocre movement.
Finally, when looking at Elo Ratings, Jabeur's overall Elo is 473.6 points higher than Maria's and her grass-court Elo is 326 points better than the German's.
This match should be quick.
Pick: Under 18.5 games (-105)
