The US Open continues to deliver and I can't wait for the second round!
I’ve found value on two of Wednesday's matchups: Niemeier vs. Uchijima and Sabalenka vs. Bronzetti.
Read on to find my second round US Open predictions for Wednesday, August 28.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
Second Round US Open Predictions
Jule Niemeier (-120) vs Moyuka Uchijima (-105)
11 a.m. ET
After going 0-2 on hard courts this summer during warmup events, Jule Niemeier survived a tough test against Dayana Yastremska and won in three sets. The German was far from perfect, but stepped up in the court and played power tennis.
Despite not winning on hard before heading to New York, Niemeier has a strong 17-10 record on the surface in 2024 and is 60-56 as a professional. Niemeier has a big serve and can follow her serves up with powerful groundstrokes. The 25-year-old also has solid variety, particularly her slices.
However, Niemeier struggles with her movement and can lose her rally tolerance at times.
Moyuka Uchijima went 3-3 on hard courts this summer before the US Open and did well to come back to defeat Tamara Korpatsch in the first round. Uchijima landed just 46% of her first serves and was thus under pressure in many of her service games. She also struggled to hit through the German during baseline exchanges.
Uchijima is an astounding 23-10 on hard courts this year, although her form has cooled off as she's lost three-straight matches coming into this tournament. The 23-year-old is solid from the ground and places her shots well around the court well. She can also hit into openings with her forehand when given the opportunity.
However, there's a lack of power to both her serve and ground game that is exposed once she's not playing ITF events. Uchijima's backhand is also not a threat.
Niemeier matches up well with Uchijima, so it's no surprise she is 4-0 in sets against the 23-year-old.
Uchijima lacks the power to extract Niemeier from the baseline. Therefore, this becomes a comfortable matchup for the German as her movement won't be tested very much.
Niemeier's variety can take Uchijima out of rhythm and she can utilize her raw firepower to effectively target the Uchijima's backhand.
Pick: Niemeier Moneyline (-120 via BetMGM)
Aryna Sabalenka (-3500) vs Lucia Bronzetti (+1280)
3 p.m. ET
Aryna Sabalenka came to New York on a five-match winning streak, having won at Cincinnati. And, the Belarusian cruised past Priscilla Hon in the first round, only getting broken once and hitting 27 winners against 16 unforced errors. Sabalenka ripped control of the baseline away from the Aussie.
Sabalenka, who won the other hard-court Major this year in Australia, is an impressive 24-6 on hard this season. For her career, the 26-year-old is 286-119 on the surface. Sabalenka has an elite serve. In 2024, the Belarusian has hit 235 aces, winning over 63% of her service points and 79% of her service games.
Sabalenka hits with incredible controlled aggression from the ground, particularly with her forehand. She positions herself well and usually pulls the trigger at the right times, though she can lose her discipline on occasion.
Lucia Bronzetti broke her three-match losing streak at Flushing Meadows, getting fortunate when Lulu Sun retired with the Italian leading 6-3. While we can't conclude much from that match, Bronzetti did hit 12 winners versus eight unforced errors and wasn't broken.
Bronzetti doesn't do anything special, but is a solid player. The 25-year-old showcases strong rally tolerance and gets good depth. She can also hit into openings with her forehand, but can't consistently hit through opponents from that wing. And her backhand can leak errors, at times. In addition, despite her serving performance against Sun, she doesn't have a big serve.
And, while Bronzetti is 112-81 on hard courts as a professional, she's just 9-15 on hard courts this year.
Sabalenka should dominate with her serve and completely overwhelm Bronzetti with pace. While Bronzetti can defend decently well, she won't be able to last in the brutal rallies.
This is an especially comfortable matchup for Sabalenka because Bronzetti doesn't have the weapons to hurt the Belarusian. The Italian just has to hope Sabalenka has a meltdown, a grave prospect given her form.
There's a reason, when these two played in Brisbane (hard) earlier this year, Sabalenka won 6-3, 6-0.
Pick: Under 17.5 Games (-102 via FanDuel)
