The US Open has been unbelievable so far and we are into the round of 16!
I’ve found value on two of Sunday's matchups: Badosa vs Wangand Sabalenka vs Mertens.
Read on to find US Open picks for Sunday, September 1.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing US Open tennis odds.'
US Open Tennis Picks
Paula Badosa (-450) vs Yafan Wang (+350)
11 a.m. ET
Paula Badosa squeaked past Elena-Gabriela Ruse 4-6, 6-1, 7-6(8) to advance in New York. The Spaniard won 73% of her first serves, 50% of her return points and hit 31 winners against 26 unforced errors. She did only make 46% of her first serves and won just 41% of her second serves, however.
Badosa is now 13-2 on hard courts this summer and her high confidence surely played a role in her tight victory over Ruse. As a professional, the 26 year-old is 168-96 on hard courts. Badosa has a fairly powerful serve and plays first-strike tennis from the baselibne. She can dictate from either wings, but is most precise with her forehand.
The Spaniard is also quick and defends decently well. But, Badosa wants to be on the front foot, which wasn't always the case against Ruse.
Yafan Wang upset Victoria Azarenka 6-4, 3-6, 6-1 in the third round. Wang won 70% of her first serves, broke six times and hit 21 winners versus 17 unforced errors. The Chinese did make just 53% of her first serves and won only 46% of her second-serve points, though.
Wang is now 20-12 on hard courts this year, having aa strong 288-167 career-mark on the surface. The Chinese plays solid baseline tennis, getting good depth and spreading the court successfully. She has a high tennis IQ and understands point construction. And the 30 year-old can hit into openings when given the chance, especially with her forehand.
However, Wang's backhand breaks down sometimes and she lacks overwhelming firepower, with locked-in opponents able to overpower her.
Ruse made Badosa uncomfortable through her raw power, but Wang doesn't have the ability to do this. Instead, the ball should be on Badosa's racquet, where the Spaniard is most comfortable.
Badosa has the rally tolerance, movement and defense to hang with Wang during extended rallies. And, she has more firepower to end rallies on her terms when she gets the chance.
In addition, Badosa's overall Elo rating is 280.4 points higher than Wang's and her hard-court Elo is 156.3 points above the Chinese's.
Pick: Wang to NOT win a set (-140 via FanDuel)
Aryna Sabalenka (-800) vs Elise Mertens (+500)
6:30 p.m. ET
Aryna Sabalenka survived a third-round scare, defeating Ekaterina Alexandroa 2-6, 6-1, 6-2. It wasn't the cleanest match for the Belarusian, as she hit 23 winners against 26 unforced errors and was broken three times. However, Sabalenka was broken just once in the last two sets and did win 48% of her total return points.
Sabalenka, who won the Australian Open this year, is now a ridiculous 26-6 on hard courts this season with a 288-119 career-record on the surface. In 2024, the 26 year-old is in the top-eight (at least) for aces, service points won and service games won. Sabalenka also has punishing groundstrokes, as well, particularly her forehand. The Belarusian positions herself aggressively and does an excellent job of dictating play.
Occasionally, Sabalenka does lose control of her groundstrokes, though.
Elise Mertens came back to beat Madison Keys 6-7(5), 7-5, 6-4. Mertens broke on five occasions, but she won just 46% of her second serves and hit 23 winners versus 43 unforced errors. The Belgian was lucky that Keys gifted her 69 unforced errors.
Mertens has a 15-11 record on hard courts this year, with a more impressive 302-160 professional- mark. The 28 year-old hits her spots on serve and effectively hits into openings with her backhand. In addition, Mertens is solid from the ground, displaying good depth. And she has strong variety, showcasing cutting slices and strong net play.
However, Mertens lacks overwhelming power and her forehand breaks down at times.
These former doubles partners have has seen Sabalenka dominate the head-to-head recently, with the Belarusian winning 10-straight sets between the two.
Unlike against Alexandrova's firepower, there's nothing Mertens can hurt Sabalenka with. Sabalenka's backhand is powerful-enough to stand up to Mertens during backhand-to-backhand rallies and she should dominate the forehand-to-forehand exchanges.
Sabalenka has the clear serving edge, as well. And, despite Mertens' relative lack of power, she still hit 95 unforced errors this tournament, 36 more than Sabalenka in just one additional set.
Finally, Sabalenka's overall Elo rating is 301.3 points higher than Mertens' and her hard-court Elo is 280.3 points above the Belgian's.
Pick: Under 19.5 games (-120 via BetMGM)
