Swiatek vs Pegula Odds
| Swiatek Odds | -280 |
| Pegula Odds | +220 |
| Over/Under | 21.5 (-110 / -122) |
| Time | How to Watch | Monday, 3:30 p.m. ET | Tennis Channel |
| Odds via FanDuel. | |
Iga Swiatek breezed by Aryna Sabalenka in a rain-soakedWTA Finals in Cancun, defeating the Belarusian 6-3, 6-2 to reach the finals of the WTA Finals.
But, how will Swiatek fare against Jessica Pegula, who just dismantled US Open champion Coco Gauff 6-2, 6-1 and has been on a tear.
Read on for my Swiatek vs Pegula prediction ahead of the WTA Finals championship match.
Swiatek Gaining Form
The Pole played very well in her victory over Sabalenka. Swiatek won 75% of her service points and went unbroken, saving both break points she faced. Swiatek also won 67% of he second-serve returns, helping her break on three occasions.
Including her WTA Beijing title, Swiatek has now won her past 1o matche. In fact, Swiatek has won her last 14 sets, including all eight sets she's played this week.
Swiatek is now an incredible 38-7 on hard courts this year, with a strong 154-42 career-record on the surface.
While Swiatek's level hasn't been near what it was during her incredible 2022 campaign, she's been competing at a very high level. Her forehand has been potent as the 2023 season comes to a close.
She is playing with controlled aggression at the moment. Swiatek is dictating baseline play with her heavy, well-placed forehand and is even putting her opponents on the defensive from her backhand wing.
And Swiatek has done a great job of letting her opponents beat themselves. None of her opposition at the WTA Finals has come close to having a positive winner/unforced error ratio against her. She's absorbed pace effectively, gotten consistent depth and utilized her high tennis IQ to not go for too much from the baseline.
However, against more solid opposition, Swiatek can sometimes be overly aggressive from the baseline and press too hard on her groundstrokes. In-form opponents can successfully shrink the court against the Pole.
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Pegula Continues to Impress
Pegula continued to produce incredible tennis in her semifinal win against Gauff. The American won 67% of her service points and was only broken once. She also won an impressive 61% of her return points, breaking six times in eight return games.
The American, who in her most recent tournament won Seoul, has now recorded victories in ninth-straight matches. And, like Swiatek, she has won her last 14 sets.
Pegula has an outstanding 41-10 record on hard in 2023. As a professional, she is 265-142 on the surface. It's clear that Pegula's game is clicking on hard courts at the moment.
She has showcased a well-rounded game, especially since the start of the summer hard-court swing. The American anticipates well and absorbs pace at a high level. She's able to keep points alive defensively before turning that defense into offense with her excellent counterpunching ability.
But, Pegula's much more than just a baseline grinder. She's showcased some surprisingly strong offense through the late stages of this year. Pegula has been able to ramp up the pace on her groundstrokes without losing her precision. And her court positioning has been strong, as the American stays right near the baseline and is hard to push around.
In addition, Pegula hits her spots with her first serve and is strong at the net, with an understanding of the right times to move forward.
However, players with extreme power can rip through Pegula. And, while this hasn't been as big of a problem recently, the American can look underpowered on court.
Swiatek vs Pegula Prediction
Pegula has won two-of-three of her head-to-head matchups with Swiatek this season for a reason. She has been able to get under Swiatek's skin with her dogged defense, counterpunching and consistent depth.
Swiatek has been inconsistent when facing Pegula this year, struggling to put baseline points away from the American and hitting herself into trouble, overplaying from the ground.
While Swiatek has played at an extemely high level lately, her recent opponents have hit themselves out of matches. These opponents have not put the necessary pressure on Swiatek to be the aggressor – the one finishing points.
Pegula, as in two of her previous three matchups this season, won't gift the Swiatek a cascade of unforced errors and should make the Pole work hard, point after point.
And, Pegula has looked very competent offensively, playing with strong controlled aggression. This is an element of Pegula's evolved game that Swiatek will have to account for more than ever before.
These are the two most in-form players on the WTA Tour and I find the line to be disrespectful to Pegula, given her current form and how she's figuring out this Swiatek matchup.
Pick: Pegula to win a set (-130 via FanDuel)
