The US Open continues to excite and Friday's matchups look incredible!
I’ve found value on two of Friday's matchups: Gauff vs Svitolina and Vekic vs Stearns.
Read on to find my third round US Open picks for Friday, August 30.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing US Open tennis matches and seeing US Open tennis odds.
Third Round US Open Picks
Coco Gauff (-250) vs Elina Svitolina (+190)
12 p.m. ET
Coco Gauff beat Tatjana Maria 6-4, 6-0 in the second round. The American looked slightly uncomfortable against Maria's slice-heavy game, but she won 61% of her service points and 53% of her return points. She will need to clean up the nine double faults, though.
Gauff won this event last year, but is 21-7 on hard courts in 2024, with a 130-60 career-mark on the surface. She was also just 1-2 on hard courts in the lead-up to this event. The 20-year old ranks (at least) in the top-15 for aces and first-serve points won this year, but she's tied for 177th in her second-serve points won during this time. And while Gauff has hit with better backhand-controlled aggression in New York, that has been lacking this summer.
And though Gauff's speed, athleticism, defense and counterpunching are world-class, along with strong net skills, her forehand is still a massive liability. Opponents are able to effectively rush this wing.
Elina Svitolina eviscerated Anhelina Kalinina 6-1, 6-2 to advance to the third round. Svitolina won 51% of her return points, 63% of her service points and wasn't broken. The Ukrainian also hit 27 winners against 22 unforced errors.
Svitolina, a former US Open semifinalist, has a 16-8 mark on hard courts this season and an impressive 325-155 record as a professional. The 29-year old came back from maternity leave with an aggressive mindset. Svitolina still anticipates well and can both defend and counterpunch successfully. But nowadays the Ukrainian looks to step into the court more, taking time away from her opponents and playing aggressively.
Svitolina can lose her rally tolerance at times, however, in trying to be aggressive.
While Gauff is a deserved favorite, she's not playing near her best tennis lately. Her second serve is a mess, she's not consistently hitting clean balls from her forehand and she's low on confidence.
Svitolina has the defensive skills to effectively defend against Gauff's backhand, extending rallies while having the firepower from the baseline to rush the American's forehand.
Svitolina should take advantage of Gauff's weaker second serve, which will put pressure on her and potentially lead to a cascade of double faults.
Pick: Svitolina +1.5 sets (-140 via BetMGM)
Donna Vekic (-126) vs Peyton Stearns (+104)
1 p.m. ET
Donna Vekic comfortably defeated Greet Minnen 7-5, 6-1 to reach the third round. The Croat wasn't broken all match, winning 83% of her first serves, and she hit 26 winners against 21 unforced errors. Vekic is now 27-17 in 2024.
While Vekic is just 9-8 on hard courts this season, she is 264-190 for her career and has looked comfortable on the surface this week. The 28-year old is (at least) tied in the top 15 this year for aces and the percentage of first serves, service points and service games won. And the Croat also has huge groundstrokes, taking the racquet out of her opponents' hands, particularly with her forehand.
Vekic's lower-margin game can leak errors sometimes, though less this season.
Peyton Stearns beat Daria Kasatkina 6-11, 7-6(3) to advance in Flushing Meadows. The American won 62% of her service points, 51% of her return points and hit 20 winners against 19 unforced errors. Stearns is playing with confidence right now.
Stearns is just 11-12 on hard courts this year, although she does have a strong 106-69 record on hard as a professional. The 22-year-old has a fairly powerful serve and tries to get the ball onto her heavy, aggressive forehand that she utilizes to dictate play. Stearns spreads the court well, particularly from that wing, and is a good mover.
However, the American overhits from her forehand at times and her backhand is a liability, especially under pressure.
Given Vekic's huge first serve, Stearns will have significantly less return opportunities than against Kasatkina, putting more pressure on her serve and her serve-plus-one combinations to be effective.
Vekic has been terrific this season and is full of confidence. She is doing an excellent job of controlling the baseline and should rush Stearns' forehand. The American should panic and overhit from this wing.
And Vekic's ability to dictate play should allow her to successfully zero-in on Stearns' weaker backhand.
Finally, Vekic's Elo rating is 148.9 points higher than Stearns' and her hard-court Elo is 110.7 points above the American's.
Pick: Vekic ML (-126 via FanDuel)
