The Turin ATP Finals has been amazing so far and the fun continues on Thursday!
I’ve written up my best bets for both singles matches — Djokovic vs Hurkacz and Sinner vs Rune.
Read on for my ATP Finals predictions on Thursday, November 16.
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Thursday ATP Finals Predictions
Jannik Sinner (-310) vs Holger Rune (+235)
3:00 p.m. ET
Jannik Sinner secured an impressive 7-5, 6-7(5), 7-6(2) victory over Novak Djokovic in his latest Turin match. Sinner hit 15 aces and won 69% of his service points, getting broken just once. The Italian did win just 27% of his second serves, but he broke on two occasions.
Sinner is now an incredible 43-8 in 2023 on hard courts. He is 173-65 for his career on hard. Sinner has only been broken once in his two matches this week, showcasing excellent power and precision on serve. And, despite his return display against Djokovic, he has the third-highest return rating over the past 52 weeks. Sinner does an excellent job with court positioning and constructs points well. But, with that said, the Italian isn't the best on defense.
Holger Rune barely played in his second Turin matchup, beating Stefanos Tsitsipas 2-1 via retirement. However, in his prior match, he pushed Novak Djokovic in a 6-7(4), 7-6(1), 3-6 loss to the Serb. Rune won 61% of his service points in that match, getting broken four times. The Dane also won 36% of his return points, breaking on three occasions.
Rune is just 19-17 on hard courts this season, but he has performed better recently. Rune does have a strong 83-48 professional-record on hard. He has a precise serve and is strong from both wings, hitting with easy power. The Dane moves well and has a high tennis IQ. With that said, he can physically falter and can be a streaky player from the ground.
Sinner has been more reliable, both in this tournament and during this entire season. Sinner's serve and return ratings over the last 52 weeks have been higher than Rune's and he's showcased better baseline controlled aggression.
Sinner's forehand should be the best shot on the court and the Italian has more punch to his game, which should allow him to force Rune on the defensive, unable to make Sinner uncomfortable.
In addition, Sinner's overall Elo rating is 176 points higher than Rune's and his hard-court Elo is 216.3 points above the Dane's.
And while a letdown is possible for Sinner here, the Italian crowd should continue to buoy his game.
Pick: Sinner 2-0 (+100 via FanDuel)
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Novak Djokovic (-700) vs Hubert Hurkacz (+480)
8:30 a.m. ET
Novak Djokovic was outplayed in his most recent 5-7, 7-6(5), 6-7(2) defeat to Jannik Sinner. Djokovic hit 20 aces and won 73% of his service points, but was broken twice. The Serb won 31% of his return points, breaking just once.
He has won both of 2023's hard-court majors and is an astonishing 34-2 on hard this year. And, for his career, Djokovic is 719-136 on the surface. The Serb is an incredible defender, counterpunches well and hits his backhand with incredible controlled aggression. He is a spot server and has the fourth-highest return rating, along with the highest under-pressure rating, over the past 52 weeks. Djokovic also constructs points effectively and has a high tennis IQ.
However, Djokovic has become more error-prone in recent matches and his excellent returning is somewhat-mitigated by the quick conditions.
Hubert Hurkacz is an alternate here, with Stefanos Tsitsipas pulling out, but in his last match in the Paris quarterfinals, the Pole fell 1-6, 6-4, 4-6 to Grigor Dimitrov. Hurkacz hit 19 aces aces and won 76% of his first serves, but was broken three times. He also won only 24% of his return points, breaking once.
Hurkacz has an impressive 33-12 record on hard courts this season, with a 227-126 professional-mark on the surface. Hurkacz has the highest serve rating over the last 52 weeks. The Pole plays first-strike tennis and hits with controlled aggression from his backhand. However, Hurkacz's erratic forehand is an anchor to his game.
Djokovic has dropped a set in five of his last six matches for a reason. He has not moved nor shown the consistency that he's capable of. In Turin specifically, he's struggled to get into opponents' service games, given the court speed.
Hurkacz, having only played an exhibition this week, should enjoy the quick court. His already-potent first serve should thrive and it will be harder for Djokovic to defend against his backhand, as well.
He should use first-strike tennis to keep this match closer than expected.
Pick: Over 21.5 games (-130 via FanDuel)
