The US Open is set to begin and Monday's order of play looks unbelievable!
I’ve found value on two of Monday's matchups —Navarro vs Frech and Baindl vs Schmiedlova.
Read on for my US Open picks and predictions.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing US Open matches.
US Open Odds, Predictions
Emma Navarro (-160) vs Magdalena Frech (+130)
11 AM ET
Emma Navarro last played in Cleveland, where she blew a triple-break lead in the third set in a 6-3, 4-6, 5-7 defeat to Aliaksandra Sasnovich. Navarro won just 46% of her service points and was broken on nine occasions. The American did win 51% of her return points, breaking eight times.
While Navarro is just 5-6 on hard courts this season, she is 45-19 overall on the year. Navarro has the game to start turning the tide in her favor on this surface soon. The American has a well-placed serve, heavy, fairly powerful forehand and good court positioning. Navarro's backhand is a bit inconsistent, but she has a high tennis IQ and hides that wing well. In addition, her shot selection and point construction are superb.
After qualifying for the tournament, Magdalena Frech fell 1-6, 3-6 to Jasmine Paolini in her first main-draw match in Cleveland. Frech won just 40% of her service points, getting broken six times. But the Pole did win 55% of her second-serve returns, breaking twice.
Frech is only 12-16 on hard courts in 2023, but she does have a solid 160-121 career-record on the surface. She doesn't do anything spectacularly, but she is solid from the ground. Frech has good variety, moves well and does a great job of keeping the ball out of her opponents' strike zones. However, the Pole lacks power and her ability to turn defense-into-offense is lacking.
This should be a comfortable matchup for Navarro. The American struggles most when facing more powerful players that don't let her dictate with her forehand, rush her from the ground and force her into more defensive positions of the court.
Frech doesn't have any of these qualities. Navarro should be able to stand on the baseline, directing play with her forehand and dragging the Pole around the court.
Navarro is a cerebral player and won't get pulled into the trap of overhitting when faced with Frech's variety, as well. She should stay steady, work the points and wait for her opportunity to strike. The American has the biggest weapon on the court in her forehand.
Pick: Navarro -2.5 games (-110 via PointsBet)
Kateryna Baindl (-134) vs Anna Karolina Schmiedlova (+112)
11 AM ET
Kateryna Baindl most recently reached the quarterfinals of the Chicago Challenger, but withdrew with an unknown ailment. However, in the second round, Baindl defeated Sophie Chang 7-6(1), 6-2. The Ukrainian won 65% of her service points and 48% of her return points in a solid performance.
Baindl is now 8-7 on hard courts this season, with a solid 236-165 record on the surface as a professional. She can force the issue on her backhand wing, she moves fairly well and has good variety – particularly her drop shot. However, her forehand is a liability, as it can sometimes leak error. Baindl also can be underpowered at time, both on her serve and from the baseline.
Anna Karolina Schmiedlova last played in the Barranquilla Challenger, where she made the semifinals before losing 6-4, 4-6, 2-6 to Fiona Ferro. Schmiedlova won just 32% of her second serves and faced 22 break points, getting broken on eight occasions. The Slovak did win 47% of her return points and break six times.
Schmiedlova is 14-11 this year on hard courts, with a 185-149 career-record on the surface. Her serve is a weakness, however, she moves well and gets consistent depth from the baseline. The Slovak's forehand is heavy, well-placed and allows her to successfully dictate from the baseline. Her backhand is fairly solid, although more likely to produce short balls. Schmiedlova defends well and can turn defense-into-offense effectively.
Schmiedlova can match Baindl's consistency from the baseline. In addition, she has the defensive skills, patience and foot speed to counteract the Ukrainian's attempts to power through her from the backhand wing and bamboozle Schmiedlova with her variety, especially when she tries to surprise the Slovak with drop shots.
Her forehand should be the best shot on the court and she should be able to dictate from this wing. Schmiedlova should be able to get onto the front foot in rallies, forcing Baindl into forehand-to-forehand cross-court rallies that greatly favor the Slovak.
Finally, Schmiedlova's overall Elo rating is 47.5 points higher than Baindl's and her hard-court Elo is 36.7 points above the Ukrainian's.
Pick: Schmiedlova ML (+112 via FanDuel)
