The US Open continues to excite and we have more incredible third-round matches to come!
I’ve found value on two of Saturday's matchups: Pegula vs Bouzas Maneiro and Shnaider vs Errani.
Read on to find US Open picks for Saturday, August 31.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing US Open tennis odds.'
US Open Tennis Picks
Jessica Pegula (-900) vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro (+525)
12 p.m. ET
Jessica Pegula beat Sofia Kenin 7-6(4), 6-3 in the second round, winning 61% of her service points, breaking four times and hitting 23 winners against 17 unforced errors. Pegula is now 11-1 during the summer hard-court swing, with a title in Toronto and a final in Cincinnati. The American is playing confident at the moment.
Pegula has an impressive 21-5 overall record on hard courts in 2024 and a 286-148 mark for her career on the surface. The 30 year-old hits her spots on serve and plays solid baseline tennis, getting excellent placement, especially with her depth. The American anticipates well, neutralizing her opponents' attacking groundstrokes.
Pegula's biggest problem is that, while she can hit with power into targets, she lacks huge weapons.
Jessica Bouzas Maneiro upset Katie Boulter 7-5, 7-5 to advance in Flushing Meadows. Bouzas Maneiro won 45% of her return points and 56% of her service points, although she hit eight double faults. And the Spaniard also hit 21 winners against 36 unforced errors.
Bouzas Maneiro is now an incredible 24-8 this year on hard courts, having gone 76-35 on hard as a professional. The 21-year old relies on her forehand to drag opponents around the court. While still solid on the big points, you could tell against Boulter that Bouzas Maneiro is trying to transition her forehand into a bigger weapon, which is still a work in progress. In addition, the Spaniard's backhand is still a liability and her serve isn't a strength. She still moves well, though, blunting power and counterpunching successfully.
There is nothing that Bouzas Maneiro can hurt Pegula with. When the Spaniard attempts to be solid with her game, Pegula has the rally tolerance to match her.
Given Pegula's depth, Bouzas Maneiro shouldn't have as many clear opportunities to attack and should attempt to attack on the wrong shots, leading to plenty of unforced errors.
Bouzas Maneiro has struggled with players this summer who can tighten up their baseline game and this is her biggest challenge yet.
Pick: Under 19.5 games (-140 via BetMGM)
Diana Shnaider (-1200) vs Sara Errani (+720)
1 p.m. ET
Diana Shnaider comfortable defeated Clara Tauson 6-4, 6-4 to advance to the third round. The Russian hit 27 winners against 23 unforced errors, won 69% of her service points and wasn't broken. It was yet another win for Shnaider, who is now 8-2 on hard courts this summer.
Shnaider's weakest surface is hard courts, but she still has a 48-29 career-record on the surface. The 20 year-old is in great form right now, with her huge lefty serve and powerful forehand dictating play. Shnaider can dictate from either wing, although she's strongest with her forehand. She can take the racquet out of her opponents' hands with her first-strike tennis and raw firepower.
However, the Russian isn't a great mover and she doesn't play with much margin, with her backhand breaking down at times.
Sara Errani out-maneuvered Caroline Dolehide 7-5, 7-5 in the second round. Errani served surprisingly well, winning 73% of her service points, generating 14 break points on Dolehide's big serve and hitting 22 winners against 15 unforced errors. The Italian, who only played one summer hard-court match coming into New York, seems comfortable in the conditions.
Errani, a former US Open semifinalist, is 10-9 on hard courts this year and 272-233 as a professional. The 37 year-old veteran is has a high rally tolerance, superb placement and showcases surprising physicality for her age. The Italian, a five-time Slam doubles champion who also won the Olympic doubles gold this season, has incredible hands at the net. And her variety, as a whole, is superb, whether it be her drop shot, slices or angles.
Errani's severe lack of firepower, though, is her major weakness.
Shnaider has struggled the most, recently, with players who are consistent, physical and keep the ball out of her strike zone. This is what Errani does the best.
She should keep Shnaider on the move with her drop shots, angles and placement, utilizing her backhand slice to keep the ball low.
And, just like today against Dolehide, she should be able to coax out unforced errors and wear down the Russian's rally tolerance to push this total over.
Pick: Errani +6.5 games (-120 via FanDuel)
