The US Open has been extraordinary so far and tomorrow's matches look amazing!
I’ve found value on two of Thursday's matchups: Palvyuchenkova vs Cocciaretto and Wozniacki vs Zarazua.
Read on to find US Open picks for Thursday, August 29.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing US Open tennis odds.'
US Open Tennis Predictions
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (-200) vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto (+155)
3 p.m. ET
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova ripped past Taylah Preston 6-2, 6-0 in the first round. She hit 25 winners against 21 unforced errors, won 86% of her first serves and wasn't broken. The Russian has now won four of her last five matches after a run to the quarterfinals of Cincinnati last week.
Pavlyuchenokva has an impressive 22-11 record on hard courts this season, with a 353-231 mark as a professional. The 33 year-old veteran's first serve is fairly powerful, although her 45% first-serve percentage against Preston was too low. Pavlyuchenkova also has huge groundstrokes, particularly her forehand. In addition, she positions herself offensively, talking time away from her opposition.
With that said, Pavlyuchenkova loses her rally tolerance at times.
Elisabetta Cocciaretto destroyed Kateryna Baindl 6-3, 6-0 to advance in New York. It was a good bounce-back match for Cocciaretto, who had gone just 1-3 in the summer hard-court warmup events. The Italian improved her 2024 record on hard to 12-11, with a 59-46 career-mark on the surface.
Cocciaretto spreads the court well and is solid, getting good depth on her groundstrokes. She's quick, anticipates effectively and defends at a high level. Cocciaretto also counterpunches successfully, turning defense into offense.
And while the 23-year old can hit into openings with her forehand, but she lacks power from both the baseline and her serve.
Pavlyuchenkova has hit a good stretch of form, coming into this event having beaten Beatriz Haddad Maia, Caroline Wozniacki and Qinwen Zheng in Cincinnati. She's dominating with her forehand from the baseline and hitting with controlled aggression, overpowering her opposition.
Cocciaretto is steady, but given the zone Pavlyuchenkova is currently in, that won't be enough. The 23-year old doesn't have the weapons to extract the Russian from the baseline and force her on defense, where she's much less comfortable.
Pavlyuchenkova should control the baseline, dragging Coccarietto around the court and overpowering her.
And finally, while Pavlyuchenkova's overall Elo rating is just 58 points higher than Cocciaretto's, her hard-court Elo is 178.8 points above the Italian's.
Pick: Pavlyuchenkova -3.5 games (-105 via BetMGM)
Caroline Wozniacki (-580) vs Renata Zarazua (+420)
9 p.m. ET
Caroline Wozniacki eviscerated Nao Hibino in a 6-0, 6-1 beatdown to begin her US Open campaign. Wozniacki won 63% of her return points, 78% of her service points and didn't face a break point.
The Dane, who had only played in Cincinnati (two matches) in the lead-up to the US Open, is clearly comfortable in these conditions, having made the finaltwice. While Wozniacki is just 8-6 on hard courts this year, the 34-year old veteran has an incredible 66-186 mark on the surface as a professional.
Wozniacki doesn't have overwhelming pace, but she can play with power from her backhand wing, dictating from that wing. She's quick, anticipates well and is incredibly consistent from the ground. Wozniacki's placement is superb, getting excellent depth. And the Dane defends effectively, neutralizing her opponents' attacking groundstrokes and counterpunching at a high level.
With that said, Wozniacki's forehand can break down under pressure and her serve isn't a strength.
Renata Zarazua beat Caroline Garcia 6-1, 6-4 in the first round, having won 53% of her return points, 66% of her service points and only getting broken once.
The Mexican was 7-4 on hard courts this summer coming into this tournament and continued her good form at Flushing Meadows. However, Zarazua has a more-average record of 12-11 on hard in 2024, going 147-128 for her career.
Zarazua plays fairly steady baseline, with a more powerful backhand, but she can't dictate well from either wing. And the 26-year old's forehand is a major liability, lacking depth and at times leaking errors. Zarazua does move well and can neutralize points successfully, but against higher-level opposition she often has her back against the wall. The Mexican's serve is also weak and attackable.
Wozniacki does everything better than Zarazua. She's more reliable on serve, can dictate with her backhand at a higher level and her forehand, even though it's a weakness for the Dane, is still better than Zarazua's forehand.
This should be a baseline battle and Zarazua's forehand should break down first in extended rallies. And, when given a shorter backhand, Wozniacki is much more adept at finishing points.
Given this, Zarazua should go for more than she should and spray errors.
Pick: Under 19.5 games (-110 via FanDuel)
