The Turin ATP Finals continues to produce incredible tennis and the action resumes on Wednesday!
I’ve found value on both of Wednesday's matchups — Alcaraz vs Rublev and Medvedev vs Zverev.
Read on for my ATP Finals predictions for Wednesday, November 15.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
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Wednesday ATP Finals Predictions
Carlos Alcaraz (-190) vs Andrey Rublev (+150)
8:30 a.m. ET
Carlos Alcaraz struggled during his Turin opener, falling 7-6(3), 3-6, 4-6 to Alexander Zverev. Alcaraz won 67% of his service points, but was broken three times. And the Spaniard only won 28% of his return points, breaking just once.
Alcaraz still has an impressive 26-8 record on hard in 2023, with a 86-29 career-mark on the surface. He is an explosive mover, with excellent defensive and extraordinary counterpunching. Alcaraz places his first serve well and follows it up with powerful forehands, although he can play offense with his backhand too. In addition, Alcaraz's net play and variety, particularly his drop shot, are superb.
However, Alcaraz is on a three-match losing streak, with the Spaniard lacking rally tolerance and patience on the court.
Andrey Rublev was completely outplayed in his 4-6, 2-6 defeat against Medvedev to kick off his Turin campaign. Rublev won just 54% of his service points, getting broken on three occasions. And Rublev won just 31% of his return points, failing to break serve.
Rublev is now 29-16 on hard courts this year. The Russian has a strong 280-148 record on hard as a professional. Rublev's forehand is his biggest strength, as the Russian dictates baseline play from that wing. And Rublev's backhand has even become marginally improved this season. Rublev maintains excellent court positioning and moves well.
With that said, against Medvedev, Rublev's backhand landed short and was too loose, he got little from his serve and he seemed tentative to move forward. In addition, there was little variety and he overemphasized topspin from aggressive positions on the court.
Despite the quick conditions, Rublev's serve was impotent against Medvedev. It's particularly concerning given that Alcaraz, despite his returning display against Zverev, has the second-highest return rating over the past 52 weeks (Medvedev at one).
And, like Medvedev, Alcaraz's defensive abilities should fend off Rublev's big forehands and wait until the Russian either presses too hard from that wing or his backhand breaks down.
In addition, Alcaraz has the offensive abilities with his groundstrokes to push Rublev off the baseline and out of his comfort zone.
Finally, Alcaraz's overall Elo rating is 112.2 points higher than Rublev's and his hard-court Elo is 75 points above the Russian's.
Pick: Alcaraz -2.5 games (-120 via PointsBet)
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Daniil Medvedev (-225) vs Alexander Zverev (+180)
3:00 p.m. ET
Medvedev played spectacular tennis in his first Turin match, beating Andrey Rublev 6-4, 6-2. Hd won 69% of his service points and wasn't broken. Medvedev also won 46% of his return points, including 61% on Rublev's second serve, breaking on three occasions.
He is now an incredible 48-10 in 2023 on hard courts, with a 341-125 career-record on the surface. The Russian has a huge first serve and backs it up with excellent movement, defense and counterpunching. Medvedev gets consistent depth from the ground and when there is an opening, he does have the power and precision to hit into targets. And, as mentioned before, he has the highest return rating over past 52 weeks.
Medvedev's court positioning is a bit too defensive, however, especially on these quick courts.
Zverev completed an excellent 6-7(3), 6-4, 6-4 victory over Carlos Alcaraz in his Turin opener. He hit 16 aces, won 72% of his service points and was only broken once. The German did win just 33% of his return points, but broke on three occasions.
He has a 29-15 hard-court record this season and as a professional the German is 268-141 on the concrete. Zverev has a massive first serve and dictates from the ground with his powerful backhand. He moves well, is excellent on defense and shows consistency from the baseline. Zverev can be too passive from the baseline, though, and his forehand is a liability.
Zverev won't be the beneficiary of an impatient, streaky opponent in this match. In fact, Medvedev does the opposite, sticking in rallies until his opponents crack.
Medvedev's excellent return should neutralize Zverev's big first serve and force him into tougher service games than he would like. And the Russian has the defensive skills to effectively blunt Zverev's backhand power until he can eventually break down his forehand.
Finally, Medvedev's overall Elo rating is 117.1 points higher than Zverev's and his hard-court Elo is 149.6 points above the German's.
Pick: Medvedev 2-0 (+125 via FanDuel)
