WTA Madrid Open Odds, Picks
WTA Madrid Open has featured amazing quarterfinal action so far and the fun continues on Wednesday!
I’ve found value on two of Wednesday's matchups — Putintseva vs.Rybakina and Andreeva vs. Sabalenka.
Read on to find Madrid picks for Wednesday, May 1.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
Elena Rybakina (-550) vs Yulia Putintseva (+380)
6 a.m. ET
Elena Rybakina defeated Sara Bejlek 6-1, 6-3 in Madrid's round of 16. Rybakina won 57% of her service points, saving 13-of-15 break points. The Kazakh also won 58% of her return points, breaking six times.
Rybakina is now an impressive 83-35 on clay for her career. She has started this season 7-0 on clay. The Kazakh, who won WTA Stuttgart (clay) in her previous event. has a 7-0 record on the dirt this season. Rybakina has a massive first serve and follows it up with huge forehands. The World No. 4's backhand can also be a weapon, although she's less consistent from this wing.
While the Madrid altitude helps add even more pop to Rybakina's groundstrokes, it can also exacerbate her "bad patches" during matches. In addition, Rybakina's defense and movement aren't strengths.
Yulia Putintseva came back to beat Daria Kasatkina 3-6, 6-2, 6-2 to advance to the Madrid quarterfinals. Putintseva won 63% of her service points, getting broken three times. In addition, the Kazakh won 48% of her return points, breaking on six occasions.
Putintseva has a strong 159-85 professional-mark on the dirt, dropping just one set so far in Madrid, her first clay tournament of the season. The World No. 50 doesn't have huge weapons, but effectively ramps up the pace on her heavy forehand and can dictate from this wing. Putintseva hits with consistent depth and, while she's less reliable with her backhand, can typically place it well. The Kazakh is quick, has plenty of variety and blunts power at a high level. She's also a strong counterpuncher.
Putintseva does lack overwhelming power and can mentally check out of matches at times.
Rybakina has played excellent tennis recently, but this is a tough matchup for her with Putintseva in this form.
Putintseva has the defensive skills and counterpunching ability to dull Rybakina's powerful game. The lower-ranked Kazakh should keep points alive and put the ball in uncomfortable positions for the World No. 4, including bringing Rybakina to the net on her terms with drop shots.
The longer the rallies go, the more Putintseva can draw out errors from Rybakina. And, given Putintseva's physical fitness, a long, grinding encounter favors her.
Pick: Putintseva +5.5 games (-120 via PointsBet)
Aryna Sabalenka (-190) vs Mirra Andreeva (+150)
2 p.m. ET
Aryna Sabalenka came back to beat Danielle Collins 4-6, 6-4, 6-3 in Madrid's round of 16. Sabalenka won 60% of her service points, getting broken four times. The Belarusian also won 45% of her return points, breaking on six occasions.
Sabalenka now has an impressive 72-44 career-record on clay, going 4-1 on the dirt this year. The Belarusian hits a huge serve and punishing baseline groundstrokes, which are accentuated by the Madrid altitude. Sabalenka positions herself in offensive areas of the court and takes times away from her opponents with her first-strike style of tennis, hitting with an increased level of controlled aggression in the past 1.5 years. However, this year's Australian Open champion does have times where her rally tolerance is lower.
Mirra Andreeva defeated Jasmine Paolini 7-6(2), 6-4 to advance to the Madrid quarterfinals. Andreeva won 52% of her service points, getting broken on five occasions. In addition, the Russian won 52% of her return points, breaking six times.
Andreeva improves to an incredible 47-9 on clay as a professional, with a 6-1 mark in 2o24 on the dirt. The 17 year-old plays intelligent tennis, spreading the court well and utilizing excellent variety. She hits with pace into openings, which is easier in the altitude of Madrid. Andreeva also anticipates well and counterpunches successfully. But, the Russian does lack some power, both on serve and from the ground.
Sabalenka is looking more comfortable in Madrid, hitting her targets with a greater frequency. And, when she's locked in, there's little her opponents can do.
While Andreeva's variety and ability to spread the court are strengths, she won't be able to effectively implement her game, as she will constantly be on the defense against Sabalenka's attacking groundstrokes.
This was the case last season in Madrid, when Sabalenka ripped through Andreeva from the baseline in a straight sets victory.
And Andreeva winning just 52% of her service points against Paolini was disturbing, as Sabalenka has the powerful return game to expose the Russian's weaker serve.
Pick: Sabalenka -3.5 games (-110 via BetMGM)
