The third round of Wimbledon is here and the order of play is terrific!
I’ve found value on two of Friday's matchups — Paolini–Andreescu and Raducanu–Sakkari.
Read on for my Wimbledon best bets.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
Wimbledon Odds & Wimbledon Best Bets
Jasmine Paolini (-134) vs Bianca Andreescu (+114)
8 a.m. ET
Jasmine Paolini defeated Greet Minnen 7-6(5), 6-2 to reach the third round of Wimbledon. This year's Roland Garros finalist made the third round of Wimbledon for the first time, going 4-1 on grass in 2024.
However, for her career, the Italian is 10-14 on the surface. While Paolini has added some more offense to her game, her heavy forehand can still sit up on grass and she still can't rip through the court like many other players. The 28-year old also doesn't move nearly as well on grass compared to clay and is still a bit too passive during rallies. Paolini doesn't truly understand grass-court point construction and shot selection.
In addition, Paolini looks uncomfortable when moving forward on the surface. And, while Paolini spreads the court fairly well, her slices are not a strength of her game.
Bianca Andreescu passed a tough test, beating Linda Noskova 6-3, 7-6(5) in the Wimbledon second round. The Canadian is now 6-2 this season on grass, with a strong 28-17 mark as a professional.
Unlike Paolini, Andreescu's game suits the grass well. The 24-year old maintains her rally tolerance on the surface well, can handle the funky bounces that grass-court tennis provides and constructs grass-court points at a high level. Indeed, it's Andreescu's variety that is most impressive. She can hit cutting slices from both wings and has a fantastic drop shot. In addition, Andreescu's placement is superb and she's smart in how she uses high balls to reset points.
Yes, Paolini beat Andreescu at the French Open, but Andreescu still got a set, that was the Canadian's first tournament of the season, and in conditions much more favorable to Paolini (clay).
In fact, Andreescu's grass Elo rating is 163.1 points above the Italian's. Andreescu is the much more experienced player on the surface, understands point construction and shot selection on grass at a much higher level than Paolini.
Not to mention Andreescu's variety, a staple of her game and something Paolini lacks, is most effective on grass.
Pick: Andreescu ML (+114 via FanDuel)
Emma Raducanu (-140) vs Maria Sakkari (+110)
11 a.m. ET
Emma Raducanu destroyed Elise Mertens 6-1, 6-2 in an impressive victory. Raducanu bossed Mertens around the court and looked so comfortable both moving and maintaining her rally tolerance on the surface.
It's no surprise, then, that Raducanu has a 6-2 record on grass in 2024, which helped to improve her career-record on the surface to 12-10. The 21-year old has really put things together this season on grass, losing just four games to Sloane Stephens and beating WTA Berlin (grass) champion Jessica Pegula.
In addition to Raducanu's consistency and strong movement on grass, the Brit has easy power from the baseline and has done an excellent job of hitting with controlled aggression, particularly with her forehand.
Maria Sakkari took advantage of a favorable draw, taking down an overmatched Arantxa Rus 7-5, 6-3. The Greek actually has a strong 29-20 record on grass as a professional, but is just 2-2 this season, having not won a match on grass prior to Wimbledon in 2024.
However, don't let Sakkari's grass-court record fool you, she is far-from-comfortable on the surface. The 28-year old doesn't move as well on the grass as she does on other surfaces and doesn't handle the bad bounces particularly well, either. Sakkari's flatter backhand doesn't have much topspin, but she's shaky from this wing. Her heavy forehand also sits up too much, as opposed to cutting through the surface.
Sakkari's strong grass-court record is more a product of her being a perennial top player as opposed to any sort of grass-court craft from the Greek.
And, Sakkari is not playing great grass-court tennis and has mainly just been a beneficiary of a weak draw to start the tournament. Raducanu, on the other hand, has unlocked a new level to her grass-court tennis, balancing precise offense and dogged defense beautifully.
Sakkari has the weakest shot on the court in her backhand and her main weapon in her forehand is less effective on grass too. Raducanu's offensive groundstrokes, on the other hand, cut through the court more.
Raducanu will have the crowd support and should have the the belief that she can win this match on a big stage, given how she dismissed Sakkari in the 2021 US Open semifinals, as well.
