The round of 16 at Wimbledon is here and London will be buzzing with Sunday's matches!
I’ve found value on two of Sunday's matchups — Badosa – Vekic and Raducanu – Sun.
Read on for my Wimbledon predictions as I evaluate the Wimbledon odds.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
Wimbledon Odds & Wimbledon Predictions
Paula Badosa (-120) vs Donna Vekic (-105)
6 a.m. ET
Paula Badosa upset Daria Kasatkina 7-6(6), 4-6, 6-4 to advance in London. The 26-year old is now 4-1 on grass this season, having gone 19-13 on grass as a professional.
Badosa has adapted her game to grass well. The Spaniard hits her spots on serve and has a powerful forehand that cuts through the court well. Her backhand, while less reliable, can be effective on grass as well.
In addition, Badosa has mastered grass-court movement and maintains her rally tolerance well on the tricky surface. She spreads the court well and can implement some variety at times, although it isn't a major strength of her game. The Spaniard also has a high tennis IQ and is a good returner.
Donna Vekic survived a test from Dayana Yastremska, reaching the round of 16 at Wimbledon with a 7-6(4), 6-7(3), 6-1 victory over the Ukrainian. The 28-year old has an incredible 8-3 record on grass in 2024 and a similarly-impressive 53-34 professional-mark on the surface.
Vekic has a huge first serve and likes the quicker, first-strike tennis that grass provides. The Croat can take the racquet out of her opponent's hands from the ground as well. Vekic has a huge forehand and a backhand that is less reliable, but still powerful when she is able to maintain her rally tolerance. However, Vekic's movement isn't great, she lacks variety and she doesn't defend at a high level either.
I don't think that this is a good matchup for Vekic. Badosa's return should also allow her to get into more rallies than Vekic would like.
Badosa then has the movement and defensive skills to extend rallies and test Vekic's shaky rally tolerance.
The Spaniard should be able to coax errors out of Vekic and she has the placement and tennis IQ to keep the ball onto the Croat's weaker backhand when given the opportunity to do so. In fact, Vekic's backhand should be the weakest shot on the court.
Pick: Badosa ML (-120 via BetMGM)
Emma Raducanu (-650) vs Lulu Sun (+460)
10:30 a.m. ET
Emma Raducanu was incredibly composed in her 6-2, 6-3 second-round win over Maria Sakkari. The 21-year old is 7-2 on grass this season, having now improved her career-record to 13-10 on the surface.
Raducanu is striking the ball confidently and dictating play effectively. She did such an excellent job of dragging Sakkari around the court without overhitting. The Brit has easy power from the ground, but particularly her forehand wing. In Raducanu's last two matches, she has had a positive winner/unforced-error ratio. Raducanu is able to direct baseline play, in part, because of her strong rally tolerance on grass and her ability to deal with the rough grass-court bounces.
In addition, Raducanu moves well on the grass allowing her to successfully defend and counterpunch when necessary. Raducanu is also handling the pressure of playing at her home Slam brilliantly, having not dropped a set so far this week.
Lulu Sun continued her surprise run from qualifying, defeating Lin Zhu 7-6(4), 7-6(6). The Kiwi's grass-court record now stands at 7-2 in 2024 and an impressive 18-9 for her career.
Sun has a big lefty serve that works well on grass, especially when she hits her slider out wide on the ad-side. The 23-year old plays first-strike tennis, most effective on grass, dictating play with her big forehand and flat backhand. However, Sun's rally tolerance is suspect, especially from her backhand wing. And the Kiwi isn't a great mover, as well. She's also not strong defending and counterpunching.
The bright lights will likely be blinding for the inexperienced Sun, who should essentially be playing a "road match" on a show court against a star Brit in London.
And, quite frankly, Raducanu matches up well with Sun. The Brit has the movement, the ability to absorb pace (on return, as well) and the counterpunching ability to soak up the power that Sun is throwing her way to extend rallies and turn points around.
Raducanu has done such an excellent job this tournament of dictating play, so when she does get the edge, she should calmly spread the court and wait for her opportunity. She should also exploit Sun's weaker defensive abilities.
Finally, Raducanu's overall Elo rating is 279.2 higher than Sun's and her grass Elo is 248.7 points higher than the Kiwi's.
