The first round of Wimbledon continues on and there are some incredible matches on deck for Tuesday!
I’ve found value on two of Tuesday's matchups — Pegula – Wang and Samsonova – Avanesyan.
Read on for my Wimbledon predictions.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
Wimbledon Odds & Predictions
Jessica Pegula (-400) vs Xinyu Wang (+310)
8 a.m. ET
Jessica Pegula came into Wimbledon with a 5-2 record on grass in 2024, which includes a WTA title in Berlin. And the American continued her red-hot form in London, beating Ashlyn Krueger 6-2, 6-0 in the first round.
Pegula, who was a set from the semifinals last season, now has a strong 29-20 career grass-court record. The 30-year old's game suits the grass well, as she hits flatter groundstrokes that cut through the court. The 30-year old can hit these shots from both wings with excellent consistency and precision. In addition, she anticipates where her opponents are going well.
Combine that with a well-placed first serve, along with aggressive court positioning, and it's easy to see why Pegula has played on grass at such a high level.
Xinyu Wang battled past Viktoriya Tomova 7-6(4), 3-6, 6-0 to advance in London. Wang improved her grass-court record to 3-2 this year, and a solid 14-9 as a professional.
Wang's game adapts to grass decently well. She does have a powerful, heavy forehand, but the extreme topspin causes the ball to sit up in the box too much, as opposed to Pegula's groundstrokes, which cut through the court more. And, while the 22-year old hits a big backhand as well, she's erratic from this wing and can leak errors.
Wang does hit a good drop shot, but Pegula's anticipation should allow her to neutralize this shot.
And, while Wang likes to get on the front foot in rallies, she can sometimes rush into her offense an overplay from the ground. This, along with her shaky rally tolerance, is particularly concerning given Pegula's skill set.
Pegula's movement and rally tolerance on grass are superb and she should be able to keep points alive, place the ball in uncomfortable positions for Wang and draw out errors from the Chinese.
Finally, unlike Tomova, Pegula has the offensive weaponry to consistently step up and dictate play when given the opportunity to do so, hitting with controlled aggression into precise targets.
Pick: Wang to NOT win a set (-128 via FanDuel)
Liudmila Samsonova (-350) vs Elina Avanesyan (+260)
12:30 p.m. ET
Liudmilla Samsonova survived a tough test in the first round, beating Rebeka Masarova 6-3, 4-6, 6-2 in the first round. The Russian is now 7-2 on grass for the season with an impressive 27-13 professional-record on the surface.
Samsonova has a game that's tailor-made for the grass courts. She has a massive first serve, which was on display against Masarova, as the 25-year old won 72% of her first-serve points. And Samsonova has impressive baseline power from both wings, allowing her to rip through her opponents, particularly when she's able to unload from her forehand wing.
If you can get Samsonova out of her comfort zone, then even on grass she's vulnerable.
Elina Avanesyan cruised past an erratic Anehlina Kalinina in a 6-2, 6-3 victory. The 21-year old might not be thought of as having a "grass-court game," but she's 5-2 in 2024 on the surface and has a solid 9-6 career-record on the surface.
Part of why Avanesyan has experienced success on grass is she understands how to move and maintain her rally tolerance on the surface. The Russian anticipates well and is quick, even on grass, allowing her to defend and counterpunch at a high level. She is consistent, gets good depth and spreads the court well, placing the ball in uncomfortable positions for her opponents.
I look for Avanesyan to, for stretches of this upcoming match, out-maneuver her more stiff, less-mobile opponent. This is how the Russian was able to take out a similarly powerful-yet-slow Clara Tauson earlier this grass-court season.
Avanesyan has the return skills, defense and rally tolerance to extend rallies against Samsonova, who should be desperate to end points as soon as she can.
This should expose Samsonova's limited consistency, with the errors flowing from her racquet.
And Avanesyan's placement, utilizing different spins and spreading the ball throughout the court, should keep Samsonova uncomfortable and unable to effectively attack Avanesyan from the ground.
