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The first round of Wimbledon has arrived and Tuesday's matchups are incredible!
I’ve found value on two of the first round matchups —Rybakina vs Rogers and Begu vs Marino.
Read on for my Wimbledon picks for Tuesday's slate.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing Wimbledon matches.
Wimbledon Picks
Elena Rybakina (-850) vs Shelby Rogers (+550)
8:30 a.m. ET
Elena Rybakina pulled out of Eastbourne (grass) this past week with a lingering virus from Roland Garros. Rybakina did play the previous week in Berlin (grass), falling 7-6(1), 6-3, 6-4 to Donna Vekic in the round of 16. Rybakina won 84% of her first serves, but only 37% of her second serves, and she won just 27% of her return points.
Rybakina is the defending champion, with a 23-8 career-record on grass. Her first serve is a huge weapon. In 2023, she's first on the WTA Tour in the number of aces and percentage of 1st-serve points won. And the Kazakh backs up her serve with flatter, cutting groundstrokes that allow her to dominate from the baseline.
But, Rybakina's return and rally tolerance can sometimes go haywire. In addition, the Kazakh doesn't move great and her health is currently in question, especially after a recent practice set with Aryna Sabalenka.
Shelby Rogers fell 4-6, 4-6 to Camila Osorio in her first match of Eastbourne. Rogers won 69% of her first serves, but only won 33% of her second serves. On return, the American won 32% of her return points, breaking just once.
Rogers has not had a ton of grass success, going 19-26 on the surface as a professional. But, she has played 45 matches on the surface. And her game, theoretically, should suit the grass. The American has a big first serve and dictates baseline play, especially with her forehand. Rogers' court positioning is strong, although she can sometimes overhit from the baseline.
Rybakina's health is certainly in question here and the report of her practice set against Sabalenka was tough to hear. And in Rybakina's last tournament in Berlin, she seemed a bit slow-footed, inconsistent and lacked a decent return game.
Rogers, with her big first serve and aggressive attitude, shouldn't allow Rybakina to tee off on return and should go toe-to-toe with Rybakina from the baseline. The American should be able to push Rybakina into more defensive positions, where the Kazakh doesn't excel.
Finally, it's worth noting that even a healthy Rybakina last season covered the 5.5 games just 1-of-7 times at Wimbledon last season, and not once in the first week.
Pick: Rogers +5.5 games (-115 via PointsBet)
Irina-Camelia Begu (-145) vs Rebecca Marino (+110)
9 a.m. ET
Irina-Camelia Begu last played at Roland Garros (clay), losing 3-6, 2-6 to eventual finalist Karolina Muchova in the third round. Begu won just 48% of her service points and 32% of her return points.
However, it's been a fairly strong season for Begu, as she is 12-10 overall in 2023 and has won multiple matches in three of her last four tournaments. And while Begu has just a 16-25 career-record on grass, she has a lot of experience on the surface. Begu understands how to move on grass and she has decent rally tolerance. She's able to keep points alive and spread the court, although she lacks some put-away power.
Rebecca Marino most recently played in Eastbourne, but fell 4-6, 2-6 to Xiyu Wang in the first round. Marino won just 61% of her first serves and 38% of her second serves, getting broken five times. The Canadian also won just 27% of her return points, breaking twice.
Marino has a 3-5 record this year on grass, with a 14-18 record on the surface for her career. Marino's big serve and massive, flatter groundstrokes seem like they would suit the grass well, but there are limitations in her game that negatively affect her on the surface.
Her variety is suspect and she's not the most athletic player, struggling to get down low for slices or deal with cat-and-mouse points effectively. In addition, Marino's movement and consistency are weaknesses in her game.
It's true that Begu hasn't had a ton of grass success and is far from a "grass-courter," but she actually has a similar winning percentage compared to Marino (39% vs 44%) and matches up well with the Canadian on any surface.
Even on grass, Begu has the movement, defensive qualities and improvisation skills to lengthen rallies and force Marino into slower-surface patterns. This is a problem for Marino, given the Canadian's rally-tolerance issues.
And while Marino is serve-reliant, she hasn't won 60% of her service points in any of her last three matches (all on grass).
Pick: Begu ML (-145 via BetMGM)
