The WTA Berlin tournament is off to an incredible start and the order of play for Wednesday's slate is packed with fascinating matchups.
That said, I've found value on two matches we can exploit.
Let's take a look below to see where I've landed for my best bets and top betting picks.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches.
Karolina Pliskova (-122) vs. Bianca Andreescu (+100)
5 a.m. ET
Pliskova played an excellent final two sets in the opening round of Berlin, defeating Kaia Kanepi by a 6-7(5), 6-0, 6-0 score. Pliskova was incredibly efficient on serve, holding in all 12 of her games. The Czech won 70% of her first serves and hit 17 aces. On return, Pliskova won 46% of her return points and broke Kanepi's big serve six times.
Pliskova was a set away from the Wimbledon title last season and has an impressive 62-28 professional record on grass. The faster surface gives Pliskova's already-huge serve an additional boost. In addition, her flat groundstrokes cut through the court, out of opponents' strike zones. And Pliskova understands the right time to come to the net.
Andreescu won her second grass-court match since 2018 in the first round of Berlin, taking down Katerina Siniakova in 6-4, 4-6, 6-4 three-set thriller. Andreescu was excellent on return, winning 48% of her first-serve return points and broke Siniakova's serve seven times. However, the Canadian will need to be better on her own serve, as Andreescu was broken six times.
Andreescu is 14-8 on grass in her career, but has played just five matches on the surface since 2018. Andreescu's game should theoretically work fairly well on the surface, as her variety can take opponent's well out of their comfort zones. However, in none of Andreescu's grass-court matches since 2018 has she won over 60% of her service points.
Pliskova is a very strong grass-court player and served incredibly well against Kanepi. Pliskova can also hit powerful, seemingly-low margin groundstrokes behind her serve as well that stay low and will make Andreescu uncomfortable.
Andreescu will drag Pliskova around the court at times, but I think that Pliskova will be aggressive, punish Andreescu's second serve and make her play more defense than she wants.
It's also important to note that while Pliskova's grass-court Elo rating is 202.8 points better than Andreescu's.
Pick: Pliskova ML (-122)
Maria Sakkari (-440) vs. Daria Saville (+320)
10:30 a.m. ET
Sakkari had a successful start in Berlin, defeating Leolia Jeanjean in a 6-3, 6-2 win. Sakkari won 92% of her first serves and didn't face a break point all match. The Greek also won 51% of her return points and generated 13 break points.
Sakkari has a 19-13 professional record on grass, with a 3-1 record in 2022, but don't let these records fool you . She still looked uncomfortable on the surface of late. Sakkari doesn't move as well on grass and tries to play her clay-court game with less efficiency. And while that may be effective against an overwhelmed Jeanjean, it won't work against higher-level opposition.
Saville qualified for Berlin and came back from a set down to defeat Jil Teichmann in the first round. Saville returned well against Teichmann, winning 48% of her return points. This allowed Saville to generate 18 break points and break serve eight times. However, on her own serve, Saville hit 11 double faults, which won't be acceptable against Sakkari.
This year, Saville has held every opponent in Berlin so far to less than 50% of their second serves won and broken serve a combined 19 times in the three matches. So, while the Aussie only has a 19-21 career record on grass, she's feeling comfortable on the surface this week. Saville is moving well, showcasing a high rally tolerance and utilizing the entire court with her variety.
Sakkari has the biggest asset in her forehand, but she's much less consistent on grass and doesn't seem comfortable moving on the surface nor attacking the net. It's hard to put trust in Sakkari to blow out an opponent on grass, especially a player like Saville who will make Sakkari work for every point.
Saville is certainly not a traditional grass-court player, but is playing well in Berlin and has adapted well to the surface. While the 26 combined double faults in Berlin so far is disturbing, Saville is playing well behind her serve when she gets it into play and should keep this match close.
Pick: Total Over 20.5 Games (-110)
