WTA Berlin is off to an incredible start and the fun continues on Tuesday!
I’ve found value on two of Tuesday's fascinating matchups — Victoria Azarenka vs. Aliaksandra Sasnovich and Rebeka Masarova vs Nadia Podoroska.
Read on for my WTA Berlin picks.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
WTA Berlin Odds, Picks
Victoria Azarenka (-195) vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich (+150)
8 a.m. ET
Azarenka fell in the second round of Rosmalen 3-6, 2-6 to Ashlyn Krueger. While Azarenka won 67% of her first serves, she only won 41% of her second serves and was broken on four occasions. The Belarusian won just 33% of her return points and broke serve just once.
She has a strong 53-24 career-record on grass. However, Azarenka didn't play on grass last season and seems to still be getting re-adjusted to the surface. The Belarusian is also just not the player she once was a couple years ago, having not won consecutive matches since Dubai in February.
When she's playing well, Azarenka has a huge first serve and plays with controlled aggression from the baseline. But lately, she's lost her rally tolerance and is pressing from the ground.
Sasnovich made the semifinals of Rosmalen, but lost 1-6, 6-7(1) to Ekaterina Alexandrova. Sasnovich only won 47% of her return points and was broken five times. And, while the Belarusian only won 22% of her first-serve returns and broke just twice, she did win 58% of her second-serve returns.
As a professional, Sasnovich has a 17-18 record on grass, although her game suits the surface better than her record indicates.
Sasnovich hits her spots on serve and can ramp up the pace on her groundstrokes – particularly her forehand. A major strength of the Belarusian's game is her variety, which cuts through the grass and stays out of her opponents' strike zones. Sasnovich can lose control of her groundstrokes, however.
Azarenka is too large of a favorite here. She really struggled to find her range in Rosmalen, while Sasnovich combined powerful baseline with excellent variety that is tough for her opponents to handle.
Sasnovich should use her backhand slice to keep the ball out of Azarenka's strike zone. This should frustrate Azarenka, who is already struggling with her rally tolerance.
Azarenka also likes to be the one standing on the baseline and dictating play, whereas Sasnovich should stand toe-to-toe with her from the baseline, and not let Azarenka dominate.
Pick: Sasnovich +3.5 games (-125 via PointsBet)
Rebeka Masarova (-140) vs Nadia Podoroska (+114)
8 a.m. ET
Rebeka Masarova last played in La Bisbal D'Emporda, where she made the semifinals, but fell 4-6, 4-6 to Panna Udvardy. While Masarova won 74% of her first serves in the match, she won just 40% of her second serves and was broken three times. On return, the Spaniard won just 33% of her return points, breaking once.
Masarova is only 0-2 on grass for her career, although her game should translate to the grass with more match play. Masarova has a bigger serve and plays with controlled aggression from the baseline, which should suit her well on grass. This is especially the case given her excellent court positioning and how she can flattens out her groundstrokes, allowing them to cut through the court more easily.
Nadia Podoroska previously competed in Valencia, losing 1-6, 3-6 to Mayar Sherif. Podoroska won just 47% of her return points, facing 13 break points and getting broken on five occasions. The Argentine won just 36% of her return points as well, breaking one time.
Podoroska has a 4-4 career-record on grass, showing limited experience on the surface. She is known for her heavy forehand, which she uses to dictate from the baseline. The Argentine's backhand, however, is a liability and she does take a big swing on that forehand, so she's prone to opponents rushing her. And while Podoroska moves well, that's de-emphasized on grass. Her serve can also sit up in the box.
While both players lack a ton of grass experience, Masarova's game translates better to the surface. She has the bigger serve and can better control the baseline of the two. On return, Masarova should tee off on Podoroska's hanging serves.
Masarova should be able to rush Podoroska on her forehand wing. In addition, the Spaniard should effectively target her weaker backhand, which is the weakest shot on the court.
Pick: Masarova ML (-140 via FanDuel)
