WTA Stuttgart continues to produce incredible tennis and the action continues on Thursday.
I’ve found value on two of the April 20 matches — Swiatek vs Zheng and Garcia vs Maria.
Read on for my WTA Stuttgart picks and best bets.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
WTA Stuttgart Odds, Picks
Iga Swiatek (-650) vs Qinwen Zheng (+400)
11 a.m. ET
Iga Swiatek pulled out of Miami, meaning her last match was a disappointing 2-6, 2-6 defeat to Elena Rybakina in Indian Wells. The world No. 1 only won 42% of her service points and was broken five times. And while Swiatek won 59% of her second-serve returns, the Pole only won 18% of her first-serve returns, breaking just once.
Last year's Roland Garros champion is an incredible 92-14 on clay as a professional. Swiatek hits her spots on serve and dominates from the baseline with her heavy forehand. The Pole gets incredible pop from this wing, although she can also play with controlled aggression from her backhand side. Swiatek is very quick and has a high tennis IQ.
With that said, Stuttgart's quicker conditions don't necessarily suit her game, as it allows power players to rush her. This is Swiatek's kryptonite.
Qinwen Zheng started off Stuttgart well, beating Alycia Parks 6-4, 6-4. Zheng won 87% of her first serves and wasn't broken. Though she only won 21% of her first first-serve returns, she won 56% of her second-serve returns and broke twice.
Zheng improved her career-record on clay to 55-17. Zheng has a massive first serve that she uses to get ahead in her service games. Behind that serve, Zheng plays with excellent controlled aggression from the baseline, particularly with her forehand. Zheng can rush her opposition from the baseline, although she can have stretches of inconsistency.
She has the game to do what Liudmilla Samsonova did so well to Swiatek last season, and that's to rush her to get her out of her comfort zone.
Zheng has the power game to take the racquet out of the Pole's hands often enough to keep this match within the spread. This should especially be the case given that Swiatek could be rusty and adjusting to the Stuttgart conditions.
Pick: Zheng +5.5 games (-122 via DraftKings)
Caroline Garcia (-420) vs Tatjana Maria (+270)
12:30 p.m. ET
Caroline Garcia last played in the Billie Jean Cup when she beat Harriet Dart 6-1, 6-7(10), 6-1. Garcia won 66% of her service points and was only broken once. The Frenchwoman also won 48% of her return points, breaking five times.
Garcia is making the quick transition to clay, where she does have a 124-83 career-record. She has a huge first serve and powerful groundstrokes. Garcia is best with her forehand, but plays very aggressively from both wings. She's trying to take the initiative as soon as she can, which can backfire at times given her low-margin play.
Tatjana Maria survived a tough test in the first round from Ylena In-Albon, defeating the Swiss 6-2, 4-6, 7-6(4). Maria won 76% of her first serves, hitting eight aces and only getting broken once. The German won 39% of her first-serve returns and broke serve on two occasions.
Maria has now won seven consecutive matches, including a WTA title on altitude clay in Bogota. For her career, Maria is a solid 230-179 on the dirt. Maria has a well-placed, big first serve and hits with excellent variety from the baseline. Her slices cut low to the court and she has a high tennis IQ, understanding the right times to move forward. The quicker, slippery conditions in Stuttgart highlight the strengths in Maria's game.
While the conditions also help emphasize Garcia's serve and power, Maria has the game to give the Frenchwoman fits. The ball will stay lower on Stuttgart's clay, which will provide even more bite to Maria's slices and keep the ball out of Garcia's strike zone.
Maria has a big-enough serve where Garcia should struggle with her hyper-aggressive returning as well. She will also have the home crowd behind her for support.
Pick: Maria +4.5 games (-118 via PointsBet)
