WTA Bogota continues to excite and the fun matches continue Thursday.
I’ve found value on two of the April 6 matches — Zidansek vs Bjorklund and Sorribes Tormo vs Arango.
Read on for my WTA Bogota picks and best bets.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
WTA Bogota Odds, Picks
Sara Sorribes Tormo (-330) vs Emiliana Arango (+260)
1 p.m. ET
Sara Sorribes Tormo made a triumphant return, defeating Aliona Bolsova 6-0, 6-4. Although she hit eight double faults, Sorribes Tormo won 83% of her first serves and wasn't broken. The Spaniard won 50% of her return points, including 69% of her second-serve returns, and broke four times.
Sorribes Tormo had struggled with a foot ailment that kept her out for many months, but she clearly came back to the tour ready to play. Sorribes Tormo has a 224-112 career-record on clay and went 13-6 last season.
Sorribes Tormo is the definition of baseline consistency and, when she's confident, is excellent with her groundstrokes. The Spaniard's variety, particularly her drop shot and backhand slice, are strong, but Sorribes Tormo is a bit underpowered.
Emiliana Arango was fortunate Harmony Tan retired, although the Colombian was winning 7-5, 3-1. Arango made 82% of her first serves and won 78% of those points, only getting broken once all match. She also won 46% of her return points, breaking on three occasions.
Arango is 109-67 as a professional on the dirt, including an impressive 17-6 clay record this season. However, it is important to note many of Arango's wins have been in lower-level tournaments.
Arango's game is based around her heavy forehand. Arango is fairly consistent from the baseline, but she gets inconsistent depth on her groundstrokes and her backhand breaks down under pressure.
Sorribes Tormo didn't show many signs of rust in her win over Bolsova, so I feel comfortable with her form entering this match.
Simply put, Sorribes Tormo is a more complete player than Arango.
When looking at Elo ratings, Sorribes Tormo's overall Elo is 355.8 points higher than Arango's and her clay-court Elo is 329.4 points above the Colombian's.
Pick: Arango to NOT win a set (-120 via FanDuel)
Tamara Zidansek (-142) vs Mirjam Bjorklund (+114)
2:30 p.m. ET
Tamara Zidansek got off to an incredible start in Bogota, defeating Reka-Luca Jani 6-0, 6-1. Zidansek won 69% of her first serves, and was not broken. In addition, Zidansek won 66% of her return points and broke serve six times.
Zidansek, a 2021 Roland Garros semifinalist, has an impeccable 199-68 on the dirt in her career. The Slovenian has a heavy forehand that she hits with consistent depth and that opponents struggle to handle. Zidansek places her backhand well, even if she doesn't have as much power from that wing.
It was encouraging to see Zidansek's serving performance against Jani because her serve can sometimes sit up in the box.
Mirjam Bjorklund upset an underpowered Elise Mertens 6-1, 4-6, 7-6(3) to advance in Bogota. Despite winning just 39% of her second serves, Bjorklund won 72% of her first serves and was broken on four occasions. But, aided by Mertens' 19 double faults, the Swede won 47% of her return points, breaking five times.
Bjorklund has a strong 120-59 record on clay as a professional and has won four of her past five matches. Bjorklund moves well, is a cerebral player and can ramp up the pace on her forehand when given the opportunity. However, the Swede doesn't have overwhelming power and her groundstrokes can break down under pressure.
These players recently played in Miami, with Bjorklund winning a tight three-setter. However, that was in quicker conditions on a hard court.
In addition, Zidansek reached the quarterfinals of San Luis Potosi last week in altitude-clay conditions, so she has more recent experience honing her game to the altitude.
The ball sits up on clay, right into Zidansek's strike zone, and accentuates the spin on the Slovenian's heavy forehand. Look for Zidansek to have success dictating from this wing.
And, given how well Zidansek places the ball, she should be able to effectively target Bjorklund's backhand and not give the Swede many attackable shots.
Finally, Zidansek is serving well and has only hit nine double faults in her four altitude-clay matches this season, so Bjorklund shouldn't receive nearly as many gifted points as she did against Mertens.
Pick: Zidansek Moneyline (-142 via FanDuel)
