WTA Charleston is already off to a hot start and the fun continues on Tuesday.
I’ve found value on two of the matches on April 4, featuring Bernarda Pera vs Claire Liu and Madison Keys vs Emma Navarro.
Read on for my WTA Charleston picks.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
WTA Charleston Odds, Picks
Bernarda Pera (-140) vs Claire Liu (+110)
11 a.m. ET
Bernarda Pera will be happy to be back on clay, having fallen 3-6, 4-6 to Evgeniya Rodina in Miami (hard). Pera won just 49% of her service points and was broken on five occasions. On return, the American won 47% of her second-serve returns and broke on three occasions.
While Pera disappointed in Miami, she does have a 236-96 career-record on clay. Last season, the American went 19-6 on the dirt, with WTA titles in Budapest and Hamburg. The clay gives Pera more time to hit her heavy, lefty forehand, which she uses to dictate play. Pera anticipates well and can hit through opponents from her backhand wing, as well.
But Pera's rally tolerance can sometimes break down.
Claire Liu last played in Miami, where she lost 6-4, 5-7, 4-6 in the third round to Martina Trevisan. Liu won 56% of her service points in that match, hitting seven double faults and getting broken six times. But, she won 42% of her first-serve returns, generating 18 break points and breaking five times.
Liu is an impressive 75-32 on clay as a professional, with a 12-4 record last season. Liu even won the WTA $125k in Paris last season. The American plays an aggressive style from the baseline, trying to take the initiative in rallies, particularly from her forehand wing. Liu's rally tolerance is hit-or-miss, however, and her ability to vary play is suspect.
This will be a hard-hitting match between two Americans who are strong on clay. Pera's lefty forehand will be the difference, however.
Pera's forehand on clay is a massive weapon, as it's harder to rush her from that wing. She should dictate and go cross-court into Liu's backhand. Pera should break down this wing of Liu's and drag her around the court with her forehand.
I also like Pera's defensive and counterpunching abilities more than Liu's, as Pera can neutralize and turn points around more effectively than Liu.
Pick: Pera ML (-140 via PointsBet)
Madison Keys (-350) vs Emma Navarro (+255)
12:30 p.m. ET
Madison Keys made the third round of Miami, but fell 6-7(4), 3-6 to Barbora Krejcikova. Keys won just 64% of her first serves and 46% of her second serves, getting broken on three occasions. On return, the American won 41% of her return points and generated ten break points, but only broke twice.
Keys has a 72-43 career-clay record, but she went just 4-4 on the surface last season. Keys has a huge first serve and tries to overpower her opponents from the baseline, particularly with her forehand, which clay can help neutralize.
However, Keys can become inconsistent in rallies and her backhand is especially prone to breaking down. Keys' movement is also suspect.
Emma Navarro lost in the final round of Miami qualifying in her last match, falling 7-5, 2-6, 6-1 to Anna Karolina Schmiedlova. Navarro won 67% of her service points in that match, including 75% of her first-serve points, but was broken three times. Navarro won 36% of her first-serve returns, although she did only break on two occasions.
Navarro will be happy to be back on clay, where she has a 69-37 record as a professional. The American had a 23-10 record on clay in 2022 and is currently 9-1 on the dirt in 2023, having won a 60k last season in Liepaja and a $25k this season Naples.
Navarro's game is centered around her heavy forehand that drags her opponents around the court. The American anticipates well, has a high tennis IQ and she is solid from her backhand wing, as well.
However, Navarro's serve can sometimes sit up in the box, so placing her serve well against Keys' big return will be vital.
While Keys is a deserved favorite, Navarro will have the home crowd behind her (given it's her hometown tournament) and the game to give Keys problems.
Navarro is a cerebral player and will try to use her heavy forehand to pin Keys in her backhand corner. In addition, Navarro's rally tolerance is high and she can hang in rallies with Keys until Keys' game breaks down.
Navarro will also be able to step up in the court and dictate with her forehand, exposing Keys' mediocre movement. The clay will also help to blunt Keys' first serve.
Pick: Over 19.5 games (-130 via PointsBet)
