WTA Charleston is sure to bring incredible tennis and Monday should be the start of an amazing tournament.
I’ve found value on two of the matches on April 3, featuring Grabher vs Zhang and Kenin vs Sasnovich.
Read on for my WTA Charleston picks.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
WTA Charleston Odds, Picks
Julia Grabher (-116) vs Shuai Zhang (-108)
11:30 a.m. ET
Julia Grabher struggled last week in the altitude of San Luis Potosi, falling 5-7, 7-6(4), 4-6 to Emiliana Arango. Grabher won just 46% of her service points, getting broken on 10 occassions. On return, the Austrian won 49% of her return points, including 69% on Arango's second serve.
Grabher is historically a strong player on clay, with a 282-155 record as a professional. The Austrian has been so successful on clay on the back of her heavy forehand, which she uses to dictate play from the baseline. Grabher's backhand is solid and she hits with consistent depth from the baseline.
And while Grabher struggled last week in altitude, she won't have to worry about balls flying on her in Charleston.
Shuai Zhang withdrew from her match in Miami after attempting to play Indian Wells, but she in that one when losing 0-3 to Rebecca Peterson. Zhang was a mess out there, winning just 4-of-16 of the points played before she retired. She has lost five straight matches, winning just one set in those matches.
Zhang can punish the ball from the ground, particularly with her forehand. But, this season Zhang’s rally tolerance has also plummeted.
This decrease in consistency from Zhang is not a good sign as she moves to a surface where power becomes less important and rally tolerance is emphasized more. Grabher should be able to outlast Zhang in rallies.
Zhang may also be rusty for this match, which is important because she doesn't play with a lot of margin, even at her best. In Zhang's current state, the Austrian's forehand will be the biggest weapon from the baseline.
Pick: Grabher ML (-116 via FanDuel)
Sofia Kenin (-150) vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich (+118)
7 p.m. ET
Sofia Kenin reached the third round of Miami in her most recent tournament, but fell 4-6, 4-6 to Bianca Andreescu. While Kenin won 48% of her second serves and was broken three times, she did win 72% of her first serves. On return, the American won 32% of her return points, getting broken once.
Kenin did have impressive straight-set victories over Storm Hunter and Anhelina Kalinina earlier in the week.
She is 71-47 on clay in her career, even making the 2020 French Open final. The American is solid from the baseline and hits with good depth. Kenin hits her spots on serve and plays cerebral tennis.
Aliaksandra Sasnovich lost Barbora Krejcikova in the second round of Miami. Sasnovich won just 45% of her service points and was broken five times. On return, the Belarusian won 57% of her second-serve return points, getting broken twice.
She is a solid 109-79 as a professional on clay. The Belarusian has a decent serve and plays with aggression from the baseline. Sasnovich spreads the court well and has good variety. However, her rally tolerance comes and goes.
Kenin is rounding into form and starting to look like the Kenin of old. Her consistency has improved and she's able to better play with controlled aggression compared to how she performed last year.
While Sasnovich will move Kenin around the court and attempt to hit with pace, the American's movement and counterpunching skills should keep her in rallies and allow her to wait until Sasnovich's level drops.
Kenin's rally tolerance and controlled aggression will be too much for the Belarusian to handle. The American will also have the home crowd's support in this matchup.
Pick: Kenin -1.5 games (-125 via PointsBet)
