The tennis has been excellent in Chennai this week and we have reached the round of 16.
Not only will we get to watch some exciting tennis on Thursday, but we'll also wager on it as I have found value in a pair of matches.
Read below for my analysis and best bets.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches.
Katie Swan (-120) vs. Anastasia Gasanova (-105)
7:30 a.m. ET
Katie Swan had a strong start in Chennai, defeating Arianne Hartono, 6-1, 6-2. Swan won 68% of her first-serve points and saved eight-of-nine break points during the match. On return, Swan was all over Hartono's serve. She won 57% of her return points, including 68% on Hartono's second serve, breaking on five occasions.
Swan, who won the $60,000 event in Lexington, is riding a six-match winning streak. She is having a breakthrough year and is 15-5 on hard courts and 19-11 overall. She's also 12 spots off of her career-high ranking of World No. 164. The Brit is covering the court well and hitting with consistent depth.
Additionally, Swan is not a power player, but has done a great job recently of hitting with controlled aggression.
Anastasia Gasanova upset an inconsistent Alison Riske, 6-2, 6-3, in the first round. Gasanova won 51% of her first-serve return points and 57% of her return points overall, breaking serve six times. Gasanova won 68% of her first serves, but hit seven double faults and only won 40% of her second-serve points.
Gasanova's win over Riske was particularly surprising because she's only 7-11 on hard courts this season and 15-20 overall. Gasanova has a heavy forehand and is consistent from the baseline. However, the Russian's groundstrokes sit up in the court a bit and she struggles when trying to produce power.
Gasanova did well to beat Riske, but the American's level was very poor. Gasanova is consistent from the baseline, but the Brit can match that consistency.
Swan has also looked more comfortable on hard courts this year and is in better form. She's more at ease producing power herself and will be able to control the baseline, while limiting unforced errors.
Pick: Swan ML (-120 via BetMGM)
Tatjana Maria (-135) vs. Nadia Podoroska(+106)
9 a.m. ET
Tatjana Maria easily defeated Ankita Raina, 6-0, 6-1, in the opening round. Maria won 73% of her first-serve points and wasn't broken. On return, Maria dominated, winning 60% of her return points, including 58% on Raina's first serve. Maria broke serve on six occasions.
Maria made waves when she reached theWimbledon semifinals earlier this season, but the German is also a good hard-court player. She is 18-12 this season on hard courts and 300-245 overall in her career. Maria's slices cut through the court and she can manipulate them to precise locations on the court. She also hits her spots on serve, has excellent net play and can control the baseline with her forehand.
Maria's backhand can break down under pressure, however.
Nadia Podoroska comfortably beat Kyoka Okamura, 6-4, 6-3, to reach the round of 16. Podoroska won 39% of her first-serve return points and broke serve on three occasions. The Argentine won 73% of the points on her own first serve and was only broken once. However, Podoroska will need to improve on her 47% second serves won.
Podoroska had been out for much of 2022 due to injury and the win over Okamura was her first hard-court victory of the season in three tries. Podoroska is 101-65 on hard courts as a professional, with her heavy, powerful forehand doing damage on the surface. The Argentine is able to dominate with her forehand, although she can become erratic when the ball is outside of her strike zone — especially on her backhand.
Podoroska has the biggest weapon on the court in her forehand, but Maria's game will prove tricky. The German can keep the ball outside of Podoroska's strike zone, which will lead to plenty of unforced errors.
Maria is also a crafty veteran who will be able to keep the ball away from Podoroska's forehand. She will work the ball around the court and keep the Argentine off-balance.
Finally, Maria's net game will pressure Podoroska and force her to hit some tough passing shots that will make her uncomfortable.
Pick: Maria ML (-135 via PointsBet)
