WTA Cincinnati has produced incredible tennis, and the action continues on Wednesday!
I’ve found value on two of Wednesday's matchups — Kasatkina vs Gracheva and Gauff vs Sherif.
Read on for my WTA Cincinnati picks.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
WTA Cincinnati Picks
Daria Kasatkina (-500) vs Varvara Gracheva (+333)
11 a.m. ET
Daria Kasatkina destroyed Peyton Stearns 6-2, 6-1 to advance in Cincinnati. Kasatkina won 66% of her service points, only getting broken once. The Russian also won 56% of her return points, breaking in 6-of-8 return games.
Kasatkina's 2023 hard-court record is now 10-10, though she's playing at a very high level currently. As a professional, the Russian does have a 184-121 record on hard courts.
She lacks power on serve and from the ground, though her groundstrokes, particularly her heavy forehand, are placed very well around the court. This keeps her opposition on the move. Kasatkina id quick, anticipates well and is excellent in her defensive game.
Varvara Gracheva, a lucky loser, upset Caroline Wozniacki in a 6-4, 6-4 victory. Despite winning just 45% of her second serves, Gracheva won 80% of her first serves and saved all nine break points she faced. In addition, the Frenchwoman won 50% of her second-serve returns, breaking on two occasions.
Gracheva has improved her record 23-14 on hard courts this season. For her career, Grecheva is a solid 102-86 on the surface. She has a fairly big first serve and dictates from the baseline with her powerful forehand. The Russian's court positioning is strong. However, she doesn't have much variety and her rally tolerance is suspect, particularly from the backhand wing.
While Gracheva was able to save so many break points against Wozniacki, Kasatkina shouldn't be so giving. Kasatkina, who has won an astonishing 48.8% of her return points in 2023, should be able to get into plenty of Gracheva's service games and break frequently.
The Russian is also much more solid from the baseline and should be able to extend rallies and eventually draw errors out of Gracheva. Additionally, the placement on Kasatkina's groundstrokes should also allow her to target Gracheva's weak backhand side.
Finally, Kasatkina's overall Elo rating is 174.2 points higher than Gracheva's and her hard-court Elo is 117.7 points above the Frenchwoman's.
Pick: Under 20.5 games (-135 via BetMGM)
Coco Gauff (-200) vs Mayar Sherif (+875)
8:30 p.m. ET
Coco Gauff most recently made the quarterfinals of Montreal, but fell 2-6, 7-5, 5-7 to Jessica Pegula. Gauff won 70% of her first serves, but she won only 35% of her second serves and was broken on five occasions. She won 48% of her second-serve returns and broke three times.
Gauff, who won the WTA Washington title two weeks ago, has an astonishing 22-6 record this season on hard courts. Gauff now has an impressive 91-50 career record on the surface. The American has a powerful first serve and backs it up with a huge backhand that allows her to dictate baseline play. Gauff is very quick, anticipates well, is a strong net player and has a high tennis IQ.
With that said, Gauff's forehand can leak errors and short balls, especially when opponents are able to rush her.
Mayar Sherif survived a tough test in the first round, defeating Xiyu Wang 7-6(3), 4-6, 7-6(5) in the first round to set up this showdown with Gauff. Sherif did win 61% of her service points, though she was broken five times. The Egyptian also won 39% of her return points, generating 17 break points and breaking on four occasions.
Sherif improved her hard-court record this year to 5-9, though she does have a solid 77-68 record on hard as a professional. Sherif is best known for her clay-court craft (76% career-winning percentage), but her game doesn't translate extraordinarily well to hard. Her heavy forehand tends to sit up on hard courts, she doesn't move well on the surface and her backhand is a major liability.
Gauff is in much better form and is the significantly-better hard courter. Gauff has the two biggest weapons on the court in her first serve and backhand. She's quicker, has better variety and is much more comfortable on the surface.
Sherif's serve is not big enough to give Gauff problems and her forehand should sit up for the American, waiting to be smacked. As Sherif focuses more on topspin than raw power, she won't have the firepower to rush Gauff's forehand, which should allow Gauff to better protect that wing.
In addition, Gauff's overall Elo is 211.6 points higher than Sherif's and her hard-court Elo is an astonishing 370.8 points above the Egyptian's.
Pick: Under 18.5 games (-120 via PointsBet)
