WTA Cincinnati is off to a spectacular start and the fun continues on Tuesday!
I’ve found value on two of Tuesday's matchups — Kasatkina vs Stearns and Collins vs Pavlyuchenkova.
Read on for my WTA Cincinnati picks.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
WTA Cincinnati Picks
Daria Kasatkina (-385) vs Peyton Stearns (+300)
10 a.m. ET
Daria Kasatkina most recently made the quarterfinals of Montreal, but fell 7-5, 5-7, 6-7(8) to Elena Rybakina. Kasatkina struggled on serve, winning just 50% of her service points and getting broken ten times. However, the Russian won 51% of her return points against Rybakina's huge serve, breaking 10 times herself.
Kasatkina improved her 2023 hard-court record to 9-10, although she is clearly playing strong tennis right now. For her career, the Russian is a solid 183-121 on hard.
While Kasatkina is underpowered, most noticeably on serve, she has a heavy forehand that she uses to spread the court and drag her opponents around. Kasatkina dictates play with her incredible placement instead of power. She's also quick with excellent anticipation making for excellent defense and counterpunching.
Peyton Stearns qualified for Montreal, but lost 3-6, 2-6 to Leylah Fernandez in the first round of the main draw. Stearns won just 50% of her service points, getting broken on four occasions. The American also won only 32% of her return points, breaking once.
Stearns is 18-6 this year on hard, although many of those wins were at lower levels of the sport. The American is a solid 88-49 on the surface as a professional.
Stearns has a decent first serve and dictates play with her powerful forehand. Her forehand is heavy and can overpower her opposition. However, Stearns' rally tolerance is shaky, with her backhand particularly prone to breaking down. Her variety is also suspect.
There's nothing that Stearns' can do to seriously trouble Kasatkina. While the American has a big forehand, Kasatkina's speed and defensive skills should neutralize Stearns' forehand and draw out rallies until she eventually gets frustrated and hits a poor error.
Kasatkina's baseline placement should allow her effectively target Stearns' weak backhand, which should be the worst shot on the court. In addition, Kasatkina's variety is far ahead of Stearns, so she should be very comfortable in the cat-and-mouse exchanges.
Finally, Kasatkina's overall Elo rating is 178.4 points higher than Stearns' and her hard-court Elo is 162.7 points above the American's.
Pick: Stearns to NOT win a set (-132 via FanDuel)
Danielle Collins (-450) vs Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (+320)
2 p.m. ET
Danielle Collins turned her season around in Montreal, making the quarterfinals before falling 3-6, 6-4, 2-6 to World No. 1 Iga Swiatek. Collins won 57% of her service points, but only 35% of her second serves, getting broken five times. The American also won 36% of her return points, breaking on four occasions.
Collins, a former Australian Open finalist, is now 14-11 on hard courts this year, with a solid 154-94 career-record on the surface. Collins has a nice first serve and plays with extreme aggression from the baseline, particularly with her backhand. She best dictates play from this wing. However, the American's rally tolerance comes and goes, especially from her forehand side, and her variety is lacking.
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova last played in Contrexeville, where she made the final, but suffered a 3-6, 3-6 defeat to Aranxta Rus. Pavlyuchenkova won 53% of her service points, getting broken four times. On return, the Russian won just 38% of her return points, breaking once.
Pavlyuchenkova is just 3-5 on hard courts in 2023, although she does have a 325-215 career-record on the surface. The Russian has a big first serve and positions herself well on court, standing firm around the baseline while taking the initiative in rallies. Pavlyuchenkova has excellent power from both wings, although she become a bit erratic at times and her defensive skills are not great.
Both of their previous meetings have went three sets, with both players dictating from the baseline at times and having to scramble on the defensive at times.
While Collins had a good week in Montreal, she still plays low-margin tennis and can go off the rails at a moment's notice. This will especially be the case because Pavlyuchenkova has the offensive game to make Collins play much more defense than she would want.
Pavlyuchenkova hasn't played much on hard courts this season, but she's still played over 500 hard matches for her career and is having a solid 2023 season, going 18-12 so far on the year. While she might not beat Collins straight up, her serve and ability to hit clean, aggressive groundstrokes should give the American problems.
Pick: Over 19.5 games (-125 via PointsBet)
