The WTA 1000 event in Cincinnati begins today, and based on the draw, we're in for an incredible week of tennis.
I’ve found betting value on two matches on Monday's order of play, and I give my best bets — complete with full breakdowns — below.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches.
Petra Kvitova (-128) vs. Jil Teichmann (+104)
3 p.m. ET
Petra Kvitova fell 2-6, 6-4, 3-6 to Alison Riske in her first match of Toronto. Kvitova, known for her big lefty serve, won only 47% of her service points and was broken seven times in the match. On return, while Kvitova did break four times, she didn't generate a break point in the first or third sets.
Kvitova doesn't move well and has struggled with her consistency this season. However, when she's in form, Kvitova can take the racquet out of opponents' hands with her huge serve and powerful groundstrokes.
While Kvitova can effectively attack her opponents, she's struggled to maintain it throughout matches this season.
This dip in 2022 is shown in her hard-court results, as Kvitova is 376-185 on hard in her career but just 9-9 this season.
Jil Teichmann improved her form in Toronto, reaching the round of 16 before ultimately falling 2-6, 5-7 to Simona Halep. In that match, Teichmann won just 54% of her service points and 29% of her return points.
However, Halep eventually won the tournament, and Teichmann did win at least 70% of her first-serve points and over 55% of her second-serve points in victories over Venus Williams and Anett Kontaveit last week.
Overall, as a professional, Teichmann is 91-86 on hard courts and 10-10 this season. But Teichmann made the final in Cincinnati last season and is clearly comfortable on these quicker courts.
The Swiss absorbs power well and has excellent movement. She hits with good depth and places the ball in precise targets. Teichmann's backhand can sometimes be a liability, though.
Kvitova will enjoy the faster conditions, but Teichmann showed last year that she can still effectively absorb pace on these courts. And her own groundstrokes get a little extra pop, as well.
Teichmann is very consistent from the baseline and will force Kvitova to press on her groundstrokes. This, alongside Teichmann's placement, will also expose the Czech's mediocre movement and help to wear her down.
And, given Kvitova's mediocre serving recently, she cannot rely on as many free service points as she did in the past.
Pick: Teichmann ML (+104 via FanDuel)
Victoria Azarenka (-176) vs. Kaia Kanepi(+142)
7 p.m. ET
Victoria Azarenka had visa problems that prevented her from playing Toronto last week. However, Azarenka did play on hard courts in Washington the previous week, making the quarterfinals before falling to Xiyu Wang (picking up an injury in the process).
Azarenka is known for her hard-court play, with two Majors on the surface and a 398-142 record as a professional. When the Belarusian is playing well, she's serving big and dictating play from both wings, hitting with controlled aggression.
However, while Azarenka is 10-6 on hard courts in 2022, she hasn't been at her best this year. Azarenka has been a bit more erratic and her groundstrokes haven't made the impact they did in the past.
After making the final in Washington in the previous week, Kaia Kanepi ran out of steam, losing 4-6, 4-6 to Garbine Muguruza in the second round of Toronto. While Kanepi won 71% of her first serves, she won only 33% of her second-serve points and 26% of her first-serve return points.
In her career, Kanepi is 295-178 on hard courts and 14-6 in 2022. Kanepi serves big and is very aggressive from the baseline. The Estonian's powerful groundstrokes often overwhelm her opponents with pace.
She's not the best mover, though.
Kanepi is in good form, and having gone out early in Toronto, will be better rested this week. Azarenka has also played just three matches since the French Open during a season in which she has already struggled to find her rhythm from the baseline.
Both players are uncomfortable in more defensive court positions, and both have the offensive capabilities to dictate play for stretches of this match.
But I don't think Azarenka will be able to push Kanepi and pull away from the Estonian in this one. Kanepi's first serve and controlled aggression from the baseline are too strong right now.
Pick: Kanepi +3.5 Games (-115 via BetMGM)
