WTA Cincinnati is off to an amazing start, as Monday's matches will be a tough act to follow.
I’ve found betting value on two of Tuesday's matches, though, and I give my best bets and full breakdowns below.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches.
Coco Gauff (-167) vs. Marie Bouzkova (+135)
3 p.m. ET
Coco Gauff made the quarterfinals last week in Toronto, but ultimately lost to the eventual champion Simona Halep 4-6, 6-7(2). Gauff only won 47% of her service points in the match.
After tough wins over big hitters in Elena Rybakina and Aryna Sabalenka, Gauff struggled to hit through the more solid Romanian. With that said, Gauff did win 49% of her return points and broke serve five times.
Gauff is now 15-9 on hard courts for the year, including a 5-2 record during the summer hard-court swing. In her career, Gauff is 61-36 on the surface.
Gauff is able to dictate play with her powerful backhand. However, the American can be rushed on her forehand, and she's been streaky in recent matches, having surprising dips in her level.
Marie Bouzkova qualified for Cincinnati without losing a set, defeating Donna Vekic 6-1, 6-4 in the final qualifying round. Bouzkova won 46% of her return points and 72% of her service points, going unbroken all match.
Dating back to her first-round qualifying victory over Aleksandra Krunic, Bouzkova has won a combined 75% of her service points and has not been broken.
Bouzkova has won nine of 10 matches since Wimbledon (all on hard) and is 26-7 this season on hard courts.
Bouzkova hits her spots on serve and gets consistent depth on her groundstrokes. She's also incredibly fast and anticipates where her opponents are going. Big hitters are able to rip through Bouzkova, though.
Bouzkova will take advantage of dips in Gauff's level, just like Halep did. She is playing with incredible consistency and depth from the baseline, and won't allow Gauff to step into the court and dominate with her backhand.
But even when Gauff does attempt to hit through Bouzkova, with the way the Czech is moving, I don't think her groundstrokes are big enough to do so effectively.
In addition, Bouzkova places the ball well and will keep her groundstrokes honed in on Gauff's forehand.
Pick: Bouzkova +3.5 Games (-125 via PointsBet)
Emma Raducanu (-140) vs. Serena Williams(+120)
7 p.m. ET
Emma Raducanu will want to improve on her 6-7(0), 2-6 loss to Camila Giorgi in the opening round of Toronto. Raducanu only won 43% of her service points and was broken six times. However, the Brit did effectively take advantage of Giorgi's second serve, winning 62% of her second-serve return points.
Raducanu, last year's US Open champion, has struggled this season in the aftermath of her first major title. In 2022, Raducanu is just 11-14 and 4-7 on hard courts. However, overall on hard courts, Raducanu has a 75-26 record.
The Brit has easy power, absorbs pace well and hits precise targets around the court. She can get pushed around the baseline at times, though, and her serve isn't particularly strong.
Serena Williams will be retiring at the US Open, but she's still playing out the summer hard-court swing, losing in straight sets to Belinda Bencic in the second round of Toronto last week. Williams won 72% of her first serves, but only 33% of her second-serve points.
And while Williams won 52% of her second-serve returns, she only won 16% of her first-serve returns and didn't break once.
Williams has only played three matches this season, going 1-2.
At her best, the 23-time Grand Slam champion dominated with her first serve and had easy power from both wings that she could hit with remarkable precision. Williams' net game was outstanding and her tennis IQ was terrific.
However, nowadays, the American has lost her rally tolerance and doesn't move well. Her footwork and stamina have also declined.
At the moment, Raducanu is the fitter player with the more stable baseline game. Raducanu will be able to outlast Williams from the baseline and get her into cat-and-mouse exchanges that greatly favor the Brit at this stage of their respective careers.
Raducanu also has the more reliable offensive game right now, playing with better controlled aggression than the error-prone Williams. And given how well Raducanu absorbs power, she should be able to hang onto the baseline against Williams.
Pick: Raducanu ML (-140 via FanDuel)
