WTA Doha (outdoor hard) has been spectacular so far and the high-quality matches continue on Wednesday.
I’ve found value on two matches on Wednesday's order of play for us to exploit.
Read on for my WTA picks on Wednesday, February 15.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
WTA Doha Odds, Picks
Coco Gauff (-192) vs. Petra Kvitova (+142)
7:30 a.m. ET
Coco Gauff hasn't played since falling 5-7, 3-6 to Jelena Ostapenko in the Australian Open's round of 16. Gauff won only 60% of her service points and 33% of her return points. However, the American has started the season strong, compiling an 8-1 record (all on hard) to start the year, including a WTA Tour title in Auckland.
Gauff is now 77-45 in her career on hard courts. The American has a strong first serve that puts her ahead in her service games. In fact, in 2022, Gauff had the 12th most aces on the WTA Tour.
Gauff has a high tennis IQ, is strong at the net and is quick. She absorbs pace well and uses her precise, powerful backhand to dictate play from the baseline. And her weaker forehand has looked more solid this season.
Petra Kvitova started strong in Doha, defeating Shuai Zhang 7-5, 6-2. Despite winning just 45% of her second-serve points, Kvitova won 84% of the points on her first delivery, getting broken just twice. In addition, the Czech won 49% of her return points and broke five times.
Kvitova has gone 5-2 so far this season. She is, historically, a great player on hard, with a 392-191 record as a professional. Kvitova has a big, lefty first serve and dictates play with her huge forehand. But her speed, foot work and rally tolerance have declined over the years and she is less reliable nowadays.
Gauff, with her excellent backhand, will neutralize Kvitova's cross-court lefty forehands. Kvitova will have to go up the line, which is more risky, to get the ball to Gauff's weaker wing.
Kvitova is not nearly as consistent with her groundstrokes as Gauff and will struggle to keep up in longer rallies, forcing her to decrease her margins. This will lead to plenty of unforced errors from the Czech.
And when Kvitova is able to land her groundstrokes, Gauff will absorb her pace and counterpunch effectively.
Finally, Gauff also has the fitness edge, meaning that the longer this match goes, the better the American's chances are.
Pick: Gauff -2.5 games (-122 via FanDuel)
Beatriz Haddad Maia (-135) vs. Daria Kasatkina (+105)
9:45 a.m. ET
Beatriz Haddad Maia beat Paula Badosa 7-6(6), 6-3 to start her Doha campaign. While Haddad Maia won just 57% of her service points, she won 47% of her return points, including 65% on Badosa's second serve. This allowed her to break four times.
Haddad Maia is now 8-3 (all on hard) in 2023, and made the semifinals of Abu Dhabi last week. She is a strong hard-court player, with a 195-92 career-record on the surface.
Haddad Maia hits her spots with her lefty serve and dictates play with her heavy forehand. The Brazilian plays with margin and moves the ball around the court nicely, although she is weaker from her backhand wing. She's also strong at the net.
Daria Kasatkina advanced in Doha, defeating Rebecca Marino 7-6(5), 6-2. Kasatkina won just 53% of her service points, getting broken on four occasions. But she destroyed Marino's serve, winning 54% of her return points, generating 15 break points and breaking six times.
Kasatkina has been shaky to start 2023, with a 4-4 record (all on hard) to begin the year. Historically, though, she's been fairly strong on the surface, with a 177-114 record on hard in her career.
Kasatkina has incredible placement around the court, and she is particularly strong from the ground with her heavy forehand. The Russian returns well, but is underpowered both with her serve and her groundstrokes.
Looking at current form and level of tennis, Haddad Maia has the edge. She will be able to control the baseline with her forehand and direct play cross-court into Kasatkina's weaker wing: her backhand.
Haddad Maia plays with more margin than Marino, so she will also avoid the trap of pressing when trying to hit through the Russian.
In addition, Kasatkina's depth is not where it has been in the past. Haddad Maia should take advantage of this and pummel Kasatkina's shorter groundstrokes.
Finally, the Brazilian should get plenty of opportunities on return against Kasatkina's weak serve.
Pick: Haddad Maia ML (-135 via BetMGM)
