WTA Dubai continues to produce incredible tennis and Wednesday's order of play is phenomenal!
I’ve found value for us to exploit on two of Wednesday's fascinating matches, including Karolina Pliskova vs Anhelina Kalinina and Elena Rybakina vs Coco Gauff.
Read on for my WTA Dubai picks on Wednesday, February 22.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
WTA Dubai Odds, Picks
Karolina Pliskova (-275) vs Anhelina Kalinina (+194)
3 a.m. ET
Karolina Pliskova easily defeated Maria Sakkari 6-1, 6-2 in the second round. Pliskova hit eight aces, won 65% of her service points and was only broken once. She also won 60% of her return points and broke five times.
The Czech has gone 12-5 in 2023, with every match on hard courts. Historically, Pliskova is strong on hard, compiling a 380-203 record on the s in her career. Pliskova has a big first serve, anticipates her opponents' shots well and hits with consistent depth. She also ramps up the power when she creates an opening.
Anhelina Kalinina came back to beat Dayana Yastremska 5-7, 6-2, 6-3. Kalinina won 52% of her return points and broke on eight occasions. But, on her own serve, Kalinina struggled mightily. She won just 44% of her second serves and had to face 17 break points, getting broken on five occasions.
Kalinina is now 9-5 on the year (all on hard), and is traditionally a good hard-courter, with a 153-94 record on the surface as a professional. She has limited power but she is fast, anticipates well and counterpunches effectively. In addition, Kalinina consistently gets the ball deep in the court.
Pliskova has the consistent depth to match Kalinina from the baseline, while also having more raw power with her groundstrokes. She can stay with Kalinina in longer rallies before having the controlled aggression to end the point as soon as she gets the chance.
Her serve is also the much better of the two. Dating back to her first-round victory over Veronika Kudermetova, Kalinina has faced a combined 32 break points in Dubai so far and has been broken 12 times.
Pliskova has faced just 13 break points and been broken three times.
Look for Pliskova to expose Kalinina's serve while giving Kalinina much less to work with in her own service games.
Pick: Pliskova -3.5 games (-132 via FanDuel)
Elena Rybakina (-135) vs Coco Gauff (+108)
6:30 a.m. ET
Elena Rybakina defeated Marie Bouzkova 7-5, 6-2 to advance. Rybakina won 65% of her service points and was only broken once. In addition, the Kazakh held Bouzkova to just 56% of her first serves won and broke on four occasions.
Rybakina is playing very well this season, compiling a 10-4 record, which includes a trip to the Australian Open final. She simply has an incredible serve and power game. Coming into this week, Rybakina was first on the WTA Tour in aces and percentage of first serves won. She was also in the top 10 – for 2023 – in percentage of service points and service games won.
She hits with excellent controlled aggression from the baseline, particularly with her forehand. The Kazakh punishes short balls and dominates with her groundstrokes, although she's not the best mover.
Coco Gauff easily dispatched Aliaksandra Sasnovich 6-0, 6-4 in the second round. While Gauff won just 61% of her first serves, she was only broken twice all match. Gauff also destroyed Sasnovich's serve, winning 61% of her return points, including 54% on Sasnovich's first serve, and breaking six times.
Gauff has largely played high-quality tennis this season. She's gone 10-2 so far in 2023, which includes a WTA Tour title in Auckland. Gauff's powerful, precise backhand controls the baseline. The American is also smart with her shot selection, has great anticipation and is extremely quick around the court.
But, Gauff's forehand is a liability, as she is lacking in consistency and depth from that wing.
Rybakina will control the baseline, not allowing Gauff to dictate with her backhand, and rushing Gauff's forehand. This will lead to plenty of unforced errors and short balls, which Rybakina is excellent at taking advantage of.
I don't put much stock into Gauff's win over Sasnovich as the Belarusian played at a horrendous level. In the American's prior three matches, her forehand was particularly shaky, which Rybakina can take advantage of.
Finally, Rybakina is one of the best servers on the WTA Tour, and Gauff will find it much harder to get into her service games than any other opponent she's faced so far this year.
Pick: Rybakina ML (-135 via PointsBet)
