We are down to four competitors in WTA Dubai and the fun continues on Saturday.
I’ve found value on two of Friday's semifinal matches, featuring Swiatek vs Gauff and Pegula vs Krejcikova.
Read on for my WTA Dubai picks on Friday, Feb. 24.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
WTA Dubai Odds, Picks
Iga Swiatek (-1400) vs Coco Gauff (+580)
8 a.m. ET
Iga Swiatek was fortunate that Karolina Pliskova withdrew from their quarterfinal encounter, but she did destroy Liudmilla Samsonova 6-1, 6-0 in her most recent match. Swiatek won 72% of her service points and wasn't broken. On return, Swiatek broke Samsonova five times, winning 86% of her second-serve return points.
Swiatek has won her past five matches, including a WTA title in Doha. In these five matches, Swiatek has lost a combined eight games. Overall, in her career, the World No. 1 is strong on hard courts, with a 127-37 record on the surface.
She hits her spots on serve, dictates effectively with her heavy forehand and hits her targets. The Pole's backhand has also improved, she moves well and her tennis IQ is very high.
Coco Gauff beat Madison Keys 6-2, 7-5 to advance in Dubai. The American won 72% of her first serves and was only broken once. She won 44% of her return points, allowing her to break four times.
Gauff continues to excel this season, improving her record to 11-2 on the year. She dictates with her backhand and has a strong first serve. Gauff is fast around the court, has a high tennis IQ and is strong at the net. However, her forehand pales in comparison to Swiatek's.
She has won 14 games in her last four matches against Swiatek and hasn't ever taken a set, trailing in the head to head 0-5.
Gauff does little better than Swiatek and her forehand is a sitting duck. Swiatek annihilates Gauff in forehand-to-forehand exchanges, as Gauff doesn't get the depth nor pace to trouble the Pole.
And, given Swiatek's form and how Gauff's forehand hasn't been particularly convincing, expect more of the same tomorrow.
Finally, when looking at Elo ratings, Swiatek's overall Elo is 207.6 points higher than Gauff's and her hard-court Elo is 216.6 points above the American's.
Pick: Under 18.5 games (-128 via FanDuel)
Jessica Pegula (-180) vs Barbora Krejcikova (+142)
10 a.m. ET
Jessica Pegula was fortunate that Karolina Muchova withdrew from their match in Dubai, but the American did defeat Ana Bogdan 6-4, 6-3 in her last match. Pegula only won 53% of her first serves and was broken three times. However, she did win 55% of her return points, allowing her to break on six occasions.
Pegula has played exclusively on hard courts this season, compiling a 13-3 record. She is now 237-135 on the surface as a professional.
Whether it be her consistent depth, ability to hit into tiny targets or her shot selection, Pegula does the little things right. Her game is solid and she does a great job of forcing her opponents to lower their margins to beat her.
Barbora Krejcikova pulled off a massive upset, beating Aryna Sabalenka 0-6, 7-6(2), 6-1. While Krejcikova was broken four times in the match, she was only broken once after the first set. On return, Krejcikova won 56% of her second-serve returns, breaking on three occasions.
Krejcikova improved her 2023 record to 9-4, all on hard courts. Throughout her career, Krejcikova has been a solid hard-court player, with a 134-96 mark on the surface. The Czech gets the ball consistently deep and hits her targets from the baseline. Her variety is excellent, headlined by her angles.
But, Krejcikova's groundstrokes can break down when she's pressing, which was the case this year against Pegula at the Australian Open. The American won easily, 7-5, 6-2.
Against Sabalenka and in the round prior versus Petra Kvitova, Krejcikova was the player absorbing pace and she just needed to be solid from the baseline. Pegula will force her to be much more aggressive with her groundstrokes.
Krejcikova will overhit on her groundstrokes, trying to rip through Pegula and hitting herself out of the match.
Finally, when looking at Elo ratings, Pegula's overall Elo is 170.7 points higher than Krejcikova's and her hard-court Elo is 159.7 points above the Czech's.
Pick: Pegula -2.5 games (-125 via PointsBet)
