The WTA Finals in Cancun have featured unbelievable tennis so far!
And I’ve found value on both of Friday's matchups — Gauff vs Vondrousova and Swiatek vs Jabeur.
Read on for my WTA Finals predictions ahead of the November 3 matches.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
WTA Finals Predictions
Coco Gauff (-250) vs Marketa Vondrousova (+190)
6 p.m. ET
Coco Gauff struggled mightily in her 0-6, 5-7 defeat to Iga Swiatek. Gauff won just 43% of her service points and was broken six times. The American did win 53% of her second-serve returns, but she broke just twice.
This year's US Open champion has an impressive 39-8 record on hard courts this season. As a professional, Gauff is 108-52 on the surface. She has a big first serve and controls the baseline with her powerful, well-placed, consistent backhands. In addition, the American is extremely quick, anticipates well and is a strong volleyer. However, Gauff hits too many unforced errors and short balls from her forehand wing.
In her latest Cancun matchup, Marketa Vondrousova was a mess during her 4-6, 3-6 loss against Ons Jabeur. Vondrousova won just 46% of her service points, hit 11 double faults and was broken on six occasions. The Czech did 50% of her return points and broke three times, though.
Vondrousova has a 22-12 hard-court record in 2023, with a strong 150-63 record on hard as a professional. She has a high rally tolerance and typically gets excellent placement on her groundstrokes. She manipulates her lefty forehand around the court effectively, dragging her opponents around and showcasing excellent variety.
But recently, Vondrousova has looked sluggish, not producing nearly enough offense and leaving too many short, attackable balls. She's also done very little with her backhand.
Despite her performance against Swiatek, Gauff is still playing at a higher level compared to Vondrousova. Her backhand is the biggest weapon on the court and Vondrousova's signature cross-court lefty forehand goes right into Gauff's strength.
In addition, unlike Swiatek, Vondrousova hasn't gotten the pace nor depth this tournament to make Gauff uncomfortable on her forehand. This lack of power and precision should also allow the American, with her excellent defensive skills, to hang in rallies until she has the opportunity to turn points around.
Finally, Gauff's overall Elo rating is 116.7 points higher than Vondrousova's and her hard-court Elo is 158.8 points above the Czech's.
Pick: Gauff -3.5 games (-135 via PointsBet)
Iga Swiatek (-600) vs Ons Jabeur (+410)
6 p.m. ET
Swiatek most recently played Gauff in Cancun and defeated the American 6-0, 7-5. Swiatek won 63% of her service points and was only broken twice. The Pole also won 57% of her return points, breaking on six occasions.
She is an astonishing 36-7 this year on hard courts and 152-42 for her career. Swiatek places her serves well and controls the ground with her heavy, smartly-placed forehands. She is fast, anticipates adeptly and counterpunches at a high level. She absorbs pace effectively and her backhand has become a bigger weapon over the past couple of seasons. This week, Swiatek has had stetches where she's overcooked her groundstrokes.
Ons Jabeur beat Marketa Vondrousova 6-4, 6-3 in her latest match in Cancun. Jabeur won 57% of her service points and was broken three times. On return, the Tunisian won an impressive 54% of her return points, breaking Vondrousova's serve on six occasions.
Jabeur has a 18-10 hard-court record this season, with a strong 235-152 career-mark on the surface. She has a well-placed first serve and follows that up with easy power from her forehand wing. The Tunisian spreads the court well and showcases excellent variety. She utilizes pinpoint touch shots – particularly her drop shot – and backhand slices.
With that said, Jabeur has been way too inconsistent this tournament from the baseline. Her decision-making has looked suspect and especially given her withdrawal from Zhengzhou due to a knee ailment, her already-shaky fitness is thrown further into question.
Swiatek's level has been well above Jabeur's in this tournament. She has the biggest weapon on the court in her forehand and has showcased better control over her groundstrokes in this tournament compared to the Tunisian.
The Pole has the foot speed and defensive skills to track down Jabeur's variety and force Jabeur into longer exchanges which, given how she's looked this week, should draw out plenty of unforced errors.
While Swiatek is normally the fitter player of the two anyway, this is especially this case this week given Jabeur's knee concerns.
In addition, Swiatek's overall Elo rating is 190.2 points higher than Jabeur's and her hard-court Elo is 210.8 points above the Tunisian's.
Pick: Under 19.5 games (-110 via FanDuel)
