The WTA Finals in Cancun are here and we are reaching the end of group play!
I’ve found value on both of Thursday's matchups — Pegula vs Sakkari and Sabalenka vs Rybakina.
Read on for my WTA Finals predictions.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
WTA Finals Predictions
Jessica Pegula (-250) vs Maria Sakkari (+205)
6 p.m. ET
Jessica Pegula qualified for the semifinals of the WTA Finals, beating Aryna Sabalenka 6-4, 6-3 in her second round robin matchup. Pegula won 64% of her service points and was only broken twice. The American also won 49% of her return points, including 47% on Sabalenka's first serve, breaking on five occasions.
Pegula improved her hard-court record to an impressive 39-10 this season, with a strong 263-142 career-record on the surface. The American positions herself well on court, not letting most opponents push her around. She hits cutting groundstrokes into precise targets and is effective when moving forward. In addition, Pegula gets excellent consistent depth from the ground and is moving well, making it difficult to hit through her.
Maria Sakkari fought hard, but fell 0-6, 7-6(4), 6-7(2) to Elena Rybakina in her last match to be eliminated from the WTA Finals. Sakkari won 58% of her service points, getting broken four times but just once after the first set. In addition, the Greek won 51% of her second-serve returns, although she broke just once.
Sakkari is now 26-16 on hard in 2023, with a solid 244-165 mark as a professional. Sakkari has a heavy forehand that she uses to dictate baseline play. The Greek is often solid with her groundstrokes and is extremely fit, moving around the court well. However, especially this week, Sakkari has overcooked too many forehands, has shown low confidence and gotten little from her backhand.
While this is a dead rubber, given the money at stake, I doubt either player will take it easy, and Pegula's level has been miles better than Sakkari's in Cancun, so far.
The American is better defensively and played with the better controlled aggression when on offense. Meanwhile, Sakkari has overhit too often with her forehands and her backhand has been nothing but a hinderance. And even when Pegula is playing defense, she should be able to hang in points until Sakkari makes the first mistake.
Finally, Pegula's overall Elo is 112.6 points above Sakkari's and her hard-court Elo is 104.7 points above the Greek's.
Pick: Sakkari to NOT win a set (+106 via FanDuel)
Aryna Sabalenka (-175) vs Elena Rybakina (+138)
7:30 p.m. ET
Aryna Sabalenka disappointed in her 4-6, 3-6 defeat to Jessica Pegula. Sabalenka won just 51% of her service points, faced 14 break points and was broken on five occasions. The Belarusian also won just 36% of her return points, breaking twice.
Sabalenka, this year's Australian Open champion (over Rybakina), has a 34-8 record in 2023 on hard courts. The Belarusian is an astonishing 261-112 on the surface for her career. Sabalenka has a massive serve, as she's a top-five player in aces, 1st-serve points won, service points won and service games won. In addition, she anticipates well and has punishing groundstrokes that immediately put her opponents on the defensive.
She just struggles with her rally tolerance at times and can lose control of her second serve.
Elena Rybakina narrowly beat Maria Sakkari 6-0, 6-7(4), 7-6(2) to keep her WTA Finals hopes alive. Rybakina won 79% of her service points and was only broken once, although she won just 49% of her second serves. The Kazakh won 42% of her return points and broke four times, although she won just 37% of her return points and broke once in the second and third sets combined.
Rybakina is now an incredible 31-9 on hard courts this year, going 186-86 on the surface as a professional. The Kazakh's serve is huge, ranking in the top-five this season for aces, 1st-serve points and service games won. Rybakina has plenty of raw power from the baseline and can overwhelm her opponents with pace, especially with her forehand. But, especially in this event, Rybakina has been erratic, her footwork has been questionable and her movement has been sluggish.
With a spot in the semifinals on the line, Sabalenka has the edge. She has been more solid this week, controlling her aggressive groundstrokes more effectively compared to Rybakina.
Rybakina has not seemed like herself all week, with the exception of the first set against Sakkari. The Kazakh has often look flat-footed and she has defended poorly.
In a matchup where margins are small, I trust Sabalenka's baseline game more than Rybakina's. She's been more solid and been better defensively.
Pick: Sabalenka -2.5 games (-120 via PointsBet)
