The WTA Finals in Cancun are here and the tennis should be incredible!
I’ve found value on both of Sunday's matchups — Rybakina vs. Pegula and Sabalenka vs. Sakkari.
Read on for my WTA Finals picks.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
WTA Finals Odds, Picks
Elena Rybakina (-135) vs Jessica Pegula (+105)
5 p.m. ET
Elena Rybakina most recently made the Beijing semifinals (hard), but lost 6-7(7), 3-6 to Liudmila Samsonova. Rybakina won 61% of her service points and was broken on two occasions. On return, the Kazakh won just 34% of her return points, breaking just once.
Rybakina is an incredible 30-8 this season on hard courts and 46-12 overall. After some injury concerns, Rybakina's play was impressive in Beijing, including a victory over World No. 1Aryna Sabalenka. Rybakina has a massive serve and ranks in the top five of the WTA this year in aces, first serves won and service games won. The Kazakh also utilizes powerful baseline controlled aggression, especially with her forehand.
However, Rybakina's movement is not a strength and she can lose her rally tolerance at times.
Jessica Pegula last played in Seoul (hard), winning the tournament with a 6-2, 6-3 victory over Yue Yuan in the final. Pegula won 60% of her service points, getting broken twice. On return, the American won an impressive 56% of her return points, breaking six times.
Pegula has an outstanding 37-10 hard-court record in 2023 and is 51-16 overall. Pegula has excellent anticipation and, against most opposition, can maintain strong court positioning. The American's groundstrokes cut through the court nicely as she gets consistent depth and hits into precise targets. Pegula understands point construction and comes forward at the right time, volleying effectively.
But, Pegula doesn't have overwhelming power and, in recent losses, she's struggled to counteract extreme power.
As we saw against Madison Keys at the US Open and Jelena Ostapenko in Beijing, Pegula can struggle when facing opponents who can overload her with power.
Rybakina's first serve should give her plenty of free points to keep Pegula from dragging her into long rallies. Additionally, she has the power to dictate baseline play, especially with her forehand.
It's also important to note that Rybakina looked healthy enough in Beijing for me to trust her here.
Pick: Rybakina Moneyline (-135 via BetMGM)
Aryna Sabalenka (-350) vs Maria Sakkari (+260)
6:30 p.m. ET
Aryna Sabalenka last competed in Beijing, falling 5-7, 2-6 to Elena Rybakina in the quarterfinals. Sabalenka won 74% of her first serves, but just 38% of her second serves. She hit eight doubles faults and was broken four times. The Belarusian did win 50% of her second-serve returns, but broke just once.
Sabalenka is an unbelievable 33-7 on hard this year, including an Australian Open title and a US Open final. Sabalenka's serve has been a massive weapon this season. This season, the Belarusian is a top-five player in aces, first-serve points won and service games won. Sabalenka has overwhelming pace from the groundstrokes and takes the racquet out of her opponents' hands, especially when she can step into a forehand. And her rally tolerance is much improved.
However, Sabalenka still occasionally struggles with spats of unforced errors and double faults.
Maria Sakkari most recently played in Zhengzhou (hard), losing 6-7(2) 3-6 to Qinwen Zheng in her first match. While Sakkari won 69% of her first serves, she won just 48% of her second serves, getting broken twice. The Greek did win 52% of her second-serve returns, but won just 22% of her first-serve returns, breaking just once.
Sakkari has a strong 26-14 hard-court record this season and a 35-21 overall record on the year. The Greek's game is built behind her heavy, well-placed forehand, which she uses to dictate baseline play. Sakkari is very fit, moves well and counterpunches effectively. But, her backhand is a major liability and her forehand can be rushed.
Ultimately, as has been the case in both of their matchups this season, Sabalenka should be able to control the ground and overpower Sakkari.
Sabalenka should get plenty of free points on serve and use her baseline power to put Sakkari's backhand under fire.
Finally, Sabalenka's overall Elo rating is 161.4 points higher than Sakkari's and her hard-court Elo is 140.8 points above the Greek's.
Pick: Sabalenka 2-0 in sets (-131 via PointsBet)
