WTA Guadalajara continues Tuesday and I’ve found value on a pair of matchups — Garcia vs Sasnovich and Jabeur vs Parks.
Continue reading for my WTA Guadalajara picks and best bets.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
WTA Guadalajara Odds, Picks
Caroline Garcia (-175) vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich (+136)
2:05 p.m. ET
Caroline Garcia last played in San Diego (hard), where she fell 2-6, 3-6 to Danielle Collins in the quarterfinals. Garcia won just 54% of her service points and was broken on four occasions. On return, the Frenchwoman won just 24% of her return points and failed to generate a break point.
Garcia is a solid 20-14 on hard courts this season, although she's just 3-6 on hard since Wimbledon. The Frenchwoman plays aggressive tennis and hit massive first serves with power from the baseline, particularly with her forehand. She has offensive court positioning and moves forward effectively. However, Garcia plays with low margins and lacks patience, at times.
Aliaksandra Sasnovich started off strong in Guadalajara and beat Arantxa Rus 6-1, 7-6(5). Despite winning just 45% of her second serves, Sasnovich was broken just twice. In addition, she won 51% of her return points.
Sasnovich is just 14-13 on hard courts this year, but does have a strong 262-159 career record on hard courts. Sasnovich plays an aggressive style of tennis and attempts to overpower her opponents. However, her aggressive tennis can often turn erratic. Sasnovich's low-margin approach often backfires and leads to unforced errors. The Belarusian's defensive skills and ability to absorb pace are also lacking.
Garcia showed signs of life in San Diego, hitting through Sloane Stephens and showcasing a level of control that hasn't been present for much of this season.
Garcia's serve is more reliable than Sasnovich's, as the Frenchwoman is top five in 2023 in aces, percentage of first serves won, service points won and service games won.
Finally, Garcia's overall Elo rating is 90.6 points higher than Sasnovich's and her hard-court Elo is 81.1 points above the Belarusian's.
Pick: Garcia -2.5 games (-120 via PointsBet)
Ons Jabeur (-410) vs Alycia Parks (+315)
5 p.m. ET
Ons Jabeur recently played a poor match in San Diego and lost 4-6, 6-7(4) to Anastasia Potapova. While Jabeur won 64% of her first serves, she only won 30% of her second serves and was broken six times.
Jabeur is just 9-7 on hard courts in 2023, and while she is 5-3 on the surface since Wimbledon, she hasn't been near her best. Jabeur, when she's playing well, hits her spots on serve, has a powerful forehand that she hits with easy power and utilizes excellent variety, particularly her touch shots and backhand slice. However, the Tunisian has looked sluggish in recent matches. She's struggled with her defense, bailed out of rallies and shown inconsistent baseline play.
Alycia Parks beat Lauren Davis 6-3, 6-2 to kick off her Guadalajara campaign. Despite winning just 47% of her second serves, Parks won 78% of her first serves, hit 11 aces and was broken just once. Parks also won 71% of her second-serve returns, breaking on four occasions.
Parks is 12-11 this season on hard courts, although much of her success is on indoor hard. However, in Madrid, the American showed she can play very well in altitude, which should also help here.
Parks has a massive first serve and plays an aggressive style from the baseline. Her rally tolerance is low, but she takes the racquet out of her opponents' hands with her relentless aggression.
Jabeur has looked poor since Wimbledon. She's struggling to maintain her rally tolerance and looks sluggish from the baseline. Her foot work is poor, she's not defending well and her shot selection is suspect.
Parks clearly enjoys playing in altitude and her aggressive game — especially her serve — should be tough for Jabeur to handle.
In addition, even Jabeur's body language has been poor recently. She looks mentally disengaged from matches and that's reflected in her (relatively) low level of play.
Pick: Parks +4.5 games (-114 via FanDuel)
