The Sunshine Swing is here and the action is set to begin in Indian Wells.
I’ve found value on two of Wednesday's matchups, featuring Fruhvirtova vs Sherif and Kalinskaya vs Parks.
Read on for my WTA Indian Wells picks on Wednesday, Mar. 8.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
WTA Indian Wells Odds, Picks
Linda Fruhvirtova (-315) vs Mayar Sherif (+250)
Time TBD
Linda Fruhvirtova last played in Dubai, where she was overpowered by Jelena Ostapenko 6-2, 6-0. The Czech only won 38% of her service points and 36% of her return points. However, in her preceding match in Dubai, Fruhvirtova comfortably beat Danielle Collins 6-3, 6-4.
While Fruhvirtova is just 5-4 on the season, she did make the round of 16 at the Australian Open. Overall, the 17 year-old is 53-22 on hard courts. Fruhvirtova is quick, has a high tennis IQ and gets consistent depth on her groundstrokes. While she doesn't have the most raw power, she can hit into the openings that she creates for herself.
Mayar Sherif most recently made the quarterfinals of Monterrey, where she lost 0-6, 4-6 to Caroline Garcia. Sherif won just 52% of her service points and 21% of her return points against Garcia. Monterrey was the first tournament since the 2021 US Open qualifying where Sherif has won consecutive matches in a hard-court tournament.
Sherif is now 4-6 on the season (all on hard courts), although two of those wins were via retirements. Sherif is now just 22-36 on hard courts since the start of 2020, struggling to translate her game onto the surface. Sherif has a heavy forehand, but her movement off of clay is mediocre and her backhand can be exposed.
While the the Indian Wells conditions mimic clay courts more than most other hard courts, Fruhvirtova will still be able to out-maneuver her and target her backhand wing.
Last season, Sherif lost in straight sets in her first match to Magdalena Frech, who can defend and counterpunch at a very high level like Fruhvirtova. The Czech also has higher offensive capabilities compared to Frech.
Sherif's two wins in Monterrey are less convincing than they appear, as well. Osorio was injured in Sherif's win in that matchup and the Egyptian had to save two match points in her victory over a disintegrating Xinyu Wang.
Fruhvirtova is mentally tougher than Wang and should be able to defend beautifully on these slow courts, allowing her to neutralize Sherif's attempts to dictate with her forehand before eventually breaking down her weaker backhand.
Pick: Sherif to NOT win a set (-110 via FanDuel)
Anna Kalinskaya (-210) vs Alycia Parks (+172)
Time TBD
Anna Kalinskaya played in Austin last week, reaching the quarterfinals before falling to Danielle Collins 6-3 2-6, 1-6. She only won 51% of her service points and 38% of her return points during the match. However, Kalinskaya did beat Nao Hibino and Coco Vandeweghe to make the quarterfinals.
She is now 6-7 for the year (all on hard). Historically, the Russian is a strong hard-court player, with a 141-83 career-record. She tries to take the initiative in rallies and hits with controlled aggression. Her groundstrokes cut through the court nicely, although she can sometimes go in-and-out of matches mentally.
Alycia Parks also played in Austin, losing in her first match 4-6, 6-4, 4-6 to Mirjam Bjorklund. While Parks won 80% of her first-serve points, she only won 44% of her second serves. In addition, Bjorklund was able to win 65% of her second serves and saved 9-of-11 break points.
Parks has had an uneven start to 2023, going 5-1 on indoor hard courts, but just 2-3 on outdoor hard. She has a huge serve and really goes after her groundstrokes, playing with all-out aggression.
However, when you introduce the elements that outdoor tennis brings, Parks struggles. She's won under 50% of her second serves in all three outdoor-hard losses, turning into an unforced-error machine for long stretches of these outdoor matches and losing control of her aggressive groundstrokes.
Slow, high-bouncing outdoor conditions are kryptonite for Parks' game. She should struggle to get free points on her serve and the Russian's defensive abilities (along with the slow conditions) are strong enough to where Parks should struggle to hit through her from the baseline. The American should rack up the unforced errors.
And Kalinskaya, the more patient player with better point-constructing abilities, should be able to create offense herself, putting the hyper-aggressive Parks in uncomfortable, defensive positions.
Pick: Kalinskaya -3.5 games (-104 via FanDuel)
