WTA Indian Wells continues to produce awesome tennis and there are some fun matches slated for Saturday.
I’ve found value on two of Saturday's most fascinating matches — Madison Brengle vs. Martina Trevisan and Marketa Vondrousova vs. Marie Bouzkova.
Read on for my WTA Indian Wells picks for Saturday, Mar. 11.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds
WTA Indian Wells Odds, Picks
Madison Brengle (-240) vs Martina Trevisan (+185)
Time TBD
Madison Brengle defeated Laura Siegemund 7-6(5), 6-4 to kick off her Indian Wells campaign. Brengle won 64% of her service points and was only broken twice. She also won 65% of her second-serve returns and broke on four occasions.
Brengle is 5-8 on the year (all on hard), although she's 5-4 in her past nine matches. The American gets consistent depth from the baseline. She is quick, anticipates well and is an expert at neutralizing rallies. Brengle has a high tennis IQ, although she lacks power in her game.
Martina Trevisan last played in Dubai (hard), where she fell 2-6, 1-6 to Petra Kvitova. Trevisan won 39% of her return points and broke on two occasions. However, the Italian was a disaster on serve, winning 44% of her first serves, 8% of her second serves, and holding just once in seven service games.
In fact, Trevisan hasn't won 50% of her second-serve points in any match this season.
Trevisan is 2-7 on the season (all on hard) and riding a five-match losing streak. During this losing streak, the Italian has failed to win even five games within a set.
Trevisan has a heavy, lefty forehand that she uses to dictate play, but she has done little damage from this wing lately. In addition, Trevisan's backhand is inconsistent, her variety is lacking and her hard-court movement is mediocre.
Despite the slow, higher-bouncing conditions (which should, theoretically, help Trevisan), it's impossible to trust the Italian right now. She's struggling to create offense with her forehand and her backhand is a liability to the point where she isn't even very competitive in sets.
Brengle's consistent depth and ability to spread the court should be enough to pressure Trevisan to go for more than she wants and should lead to further unforced errors.
And with the way Trevisan is serving, the American should have a field day on return.
Pick: Brengle -3.5 games (-135 via PointsBet)
Marketa Vondrousova (-210) vs Marie Bouzkova (+172)
Time TBD
Marketa Vondrousova got off to an excellent start in Indian Wells, beating Rebecca Marino 6-2, 6-2. Vondrousova won 86% of her first serves, 53% of her second serves and didn't face a break point. She was all over Marino's big serve on return, winning 50% of her return point and breaking four times.
Vondrousova improved to 8-4 in 2023 and has won multiple matches in three of her first four tournaments (Indian Wells excluded). Vondrousova has a heavy, lefty forehand that she places well and uses to control the baseline. She plays solid tennis from both wings and the Czech's anticipation is outstanding.
The slow, higher-bouncing hard courts perfectly fit Vondrousova's game, accentuating her forehand and not allowing opponents to overpower her. Vondrousova made the 2021 Olympics gold medal match in slow, outdoor hard conditions in Tokyo.
Marie Bouzkova has struggled this season, most recently losing 4-6, 2-6 to Anna Karolina Schmiedlova. Bouzkova won just 48% of her service points and was broken on five occasions. On return, the Czech won just 26% of her first-serve returns and was broken just twice.
Bouzkova has compiled a 5-7 record on the season, with all matches on hard. When she's playing well, Bouzkova gets consistent depth on her groundstrokes and is relentless from the baseline. The Czech is fast, fit and has excellent anticipation skills.
However, Bouzkova has recently left way too many balls short in the court and has lost her rally tolerance. Her forehand, in particular, has been a mess.
Vondrousova should dictate from the baseline with her forehand and manipulate the ball around the court. Vondrousova should force Bouzkova to cough up plenty of short balls, which she puts away effectively.
And if Bouzkova's forehand starts to show weakness once again, expect the tactically-aware Vondrousova to take advantage.
In addition, Vondrousova can match Bouzkova's rally tolerance (perhaps exceed it) and also has the offensive capabilities to put points away, an area where Bouzkova is lacking.
Finally, Bouzkova is not getting much on her serve, which Vondrousova should exploit.
Pick: Vondrousova -3.5 games (-108 via FanDuel)
