WTA Indian Wells continues to produce incredible tennis, and the fun continues on Monday.
I’ve found value on two of the day's most exciting matches, featuring Marketa Vondrousova vs. Ons Jabeur and Elena Rybakina vs. Paula Badosa.
Read on for my WTA Indian Wells previews and betting picks for Monday, March 13.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
WTA Indian Wells Odds, Picks
Marketa Vondrousova (-180) vs Ons Jabeur (+142)
Time TBD
Marketa Vondrousova continues to roll in Indian Wells, as she defeated Marie Bouzkova 6-1, 6-1 in the second round. Vondrousova won 82% of her first serves, 74% of her second serves and didn't face a break point. The Czech left-hander won 56% of her return points, generating 14 break points and breaking five times.
Vondrousova has dropped just six games in her first four sets this tournament. She is now 9-4 in 2023, with all matches on hard courts.
The slow, high-bouncing groundstrokes in Indian Wells fits Vondrousova's game perfectly. Vondrousova uses her heavy, lefty forehand to dictate play from the baseline. She gets excellent placement from this wing. Her backhand is solid and she has excellent anticipation. It's hard to hit through the Czech on these courts.
Ons Jabeur survived a test from Magdalena Frech in the second round, beating the Pole 4-6, 6-4, 6-1. Despite winning just 41% of her second serves, Jabeur won 79% of her first-serve points. On return, the Tunisian won 65% of her second-serve returns, generating 12 break points and breaking on six occasions.
Jabeur, who needed minor surgery following the Australian Open, is now 4-2 on the season (all on hardcourts). She hits her spots on serve, has a big forehand that hits through opponents from the baseline and has excellent variety. Whether it's Jabeur's backhand slice or drop shots, she keeps her opponents off-balance.
However, the conditions at Indian Wells do not suit Jabeur's game, as she lacks some physicality on the court and her slices sit up more on the high-bouncing surface.
These two just played at the Australian Open, where Vondrousova won 6-1, 5-7, 6-1. Now, they're playing in conditions even more favorable to the Czech.
Vondrousova should not allow Jabeur to control the baseline and pull her around the court with her variety. Vondrousova should use her cross-court forehand to keep the ball on Jabeur's weaker backhand wing.
Jabeur's slice also doesn't do as much damage on these courts, and this takes away a major strength of hers.
Finally, Vondrousova is the more fit player of the two and is much less likely to bail out of rallies. She should extend rallies and wear Jabeur down.
Pick: Vondrousova -2.5 games (-125 via PointsBet).
Elena Rybakina (-195) vs Paula Badosa (+155)
Time TBD
Elena Rybakina won a tight opening match over Sofia Kenin, defeating the American 7-6(6), 7-6(5). Despite hitting seven double faults, Rybakina won 80% of her first serves and was only broken twice. On return, the Kazakh managed to win 54% of her second-serve returns.
Rybakina, this year's Australian Open finalist, is now 11-4 on the season (all on hard). She has a huge first serve and plays with controlled aggression from the baseline. She is particularly potent with her forehand, although she's able to ramp up the pace on her backhand as well.
However, Rybakina's movement is not great and her power is blunted in the slow conditions.
Paula Badosa comfortably defeated Nuria Parrizas-Diaz 6-2, 7-5 on Saturday to advance. Badosa won 60% of her service points and was broken on three occasions. However, she won 51% of her return points and generated 13 break chances, breaking six times.
Badosa, who has been out with a thigh ailment, is now 5-2 in 2023 (all on hard). Badosa won the 2021 edition of Indian Wells and is comfortable in these conditions. The Spaniard absorbs pace well, anticipates superbly and doesn't easily give up control of the baseline. Badosa gets consistent depth on her groundstrokes and hits into openings when they present themselves. Her serve, however, can be a weakness.
Rybakina should find it very difficult to hit through Badosa, as the Spaniard's anticipation and ability to neutralize aggressive groundstrokes is world class. The slow conditions come into play here and could further blunt Rybakina's game.
Badosa should be able to make this match physical and extend rallies. She has the ability to expose Rybakina's movement and outlast the Kazakh in many baseline exchanges.
At the very least, expect Badosa to keep this one very close.
Pick: Badosa +3.5 games (-130 via PointsBet).
