WTA Indian Wells is off to an incredible start and the action continues on Thursday!
I’ve found value on two of Thursday's most exciting matches, featuring Paolini vs Maria and Muchova vs Putintseva.
Read on for my WTA Indian Wells picks on Thursday, Mar. 9.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
WTA Indian Wells Odds, Picks
Jasmine Paolini (-135) vs Tatjana Maria (+105)
3:15 p.m. ET
Jasmine Paolini last played in Dubai where she qualified, but lost 1-6, 1-6 to Madison Keys in the first round. Paolini won just 41% of her service points and 32% of her return points in the defeat. The Italian will be happy to be back in Indian Wells, where she defeated Aryna Sabalenka on her way to the third round last season.
Paolini is just 5-6 on the season, but she's largely avoided "bad losses." She does have a solid 124-108 record on hard courts for her career. Paolini is fast, fit and gets consistent depth from the ground. And while she lacks power, she can ramp up the pace on her forehand at times.
Tatjana Maria last played in Monterrey, where the German fell 6-7(5), 6-7(3) to Elisabetta Cocciaretto in the second round. Maria won 64% of her first-serve points and was broken three times. She won just 37% of her return points, although she was able to break on three occasions.
Maria is 315-258 as a professional on hard courts and 10-7 on the year. However, many of the German's wins this season were in ITF events. Her record on the WTA Tour this season is 4-6.
She manipulates slices from both wings beautifully and has excellent touch on her shots. The German also has a high tennis IQ, understands when to come forward and puts away volleys when she ventures in. But, Maria's game becomes less effective on slower, higher-bouncing surfaces.
That's the problem in this matchup. Indian Wells has some of the slowest, highest-bouncing hard courts on the WTA Tour. Maria's slices should sit up and the slow court speed should make it harder for Maria to sneak into the net.
Paolini is also so quick and consistent with her groundstrokes, so she should get a lot of balls back and force Maria to play more long, neutral-ball rallies than the German would like.
Pick: Paolini ML (-135 via BetMGM)
Karolina Muchova (-230) vs Yulia Putintseva (+180)
4:40 p.m. ET
Karolina Muchova was playing excellent tennis in Dubai before having to withdraw from the tournament. It's a shame for the Czech as before her withdrawal, she had won three-straight matches for the first time since Wimbledon 2021.
Muchova is 7-4 to start the season (all on hard) and is an impressive 119-60 in her career on hard courts. Muchova plays an attacking style, with a well-placed first serve and excellent variety, particularly her backhand slice. The Czech is also strong at the net and understands the right times to move in.
However, the slow, high-bouncing conditions in Indian Wells aren't best for her game.
Yulia Putintseva's last tournament was also in Dubai, where she fell 4-6, 4-6 to Petra Kvitova in the second round. Putintseva won 66% of her service points and was only broken twice, but she struggled on return. The Kazakh won just 24% of her first-serve returns and failed to break serve, despite having six break points.
Putintseva is now 7-7 for the season (all on hard), although she's won four of her last six matches. As a professional, the Kazakh is a solid 226-190 on hard courts.
She is fit, quick and anticipates well. She has a heavy forehand that she places beautifully and she gets consistent depth on her groundstrokes. In addition, Putintseva counterpunches at a high level and has good touch.
Muchova's health is still in question and the conditions are not great for her game. Her slice and ability to attack are very-much weakened on the slow, high-bouncing Indian Wells conditions.
On the other hand, the conditions play into Putintseva's wheelhouse. She should be able to fend off Muchova's aggressive groundstrokes and the spin on her heavy forehand should be accentuated by the high-bouncing court and make it harder for Muchova to handle.
Putintseva should counterpunch effectively and she's a strong player when her opponents are at the net, which is important against the Czech.
Pick: Putintseva to win a set (-140 via PointsBet)
