Indian Wells has already produced incredible tennis and the action continues on March 10.
I’ve found value on two of Friday's matchups, featuring Peterson vs Zhang and Kalinina vs Fruhvirtova.
Read on for my WTA Indian Wells picks.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
WTA Indian Wells Odds, Picks
Rebecca Peterson (-175) vs Shuai Zhang (+138)
4:30 p.m. ET
Rebecca Peterson qualified for Indian Wells without dropping a set and then beat recent Austin champion Marta Kostyuk 7-5, 5-7, 7-5 in the main draw.
Peterson struggled on her serve, winning just 53% of her service points, facing 19 break points and getting broken seven times. However, the Swede won 47% of her return points and generated 19 break points of her own, breaking on eight occasions.
Peterson is 13-3 on the season, and 9-2 at the tour level, specifically. In her most recent tournament, Peterson came within a set of a WTA Tour title in Merida.
She is very solid from the baseline, anticipates well and gets excellent placement on her groundstrokes. While she struggles to generate power on her serve, Peterson can dictate with her forehand from the baseline.
Shuai Zhang has struggled recently, losing her last four matches and last six sets coming into Indian Wells. In her latest defeat, Zhang fell 3-6, 1-6 to Qinwen Zheng in Dubai. She won just 39% of service points and 38% of her return points in that disappointing performance.
Zhang is now 4-7 on the year, although she did make the round of 16 at the Australian Open. At her best, Zhang has a big first serve that she uses to dominate her service games. From the baseline, she tries to dictate play from both wings, but especially with her forehand. However, there are times when the unforced errors flow from Zhang's racquet.
These two players are coming into this match in completely different form. Zhang has been erratic from the baseline and has been broken 19 times during her four-match losing streak, which is notable because of how reliant Zhang is on her serve (whereas serve is less important to Peterson).
Peterson, on the other hand, is playing with consistent depth from the ground. The Swede shouldn't give Zhang many attackable balls and should take advantage of her inconsistent play.
She also should be able to dictate with her forehand at times, putting Zhang on the defensive and out of her comfort zone.
Pick: Peterson -2.5 games (-120 via PointsBet)
Anhelina Kalinina (-150) vs Linda Fruhvirtova (+125)
2 p.m. ET
Kalinina last played in Dubai, where she fell 5-7, 7-6(6), 2-6 to Karolina Pliskova in the round of 16. Kalinina won just 62% of her service points and was broken four times. Despite Kalinina's return prowess, she won just 34% of her return points and generated four break points, breaking just once.
However, in Kalinina's previous two matches in Dubai, she generated 24 break points and broke 16 times.
Kalinina is now 9-6 for the season. The Ukrainian's speed and anticipation skills are elite, allowing her to counterpunch at a very high level. She doesn't have overwhelming ability from the baseline, but she can effectively hit into openings that she creates for herself. In addition, Kalinina's consistent depth and tennis IQ are excellent.
Linda Fruhvirtova struggled against Mayar Sherif in the first round, but eventually came through 0-6, 6-2, 6-3. Fruhvirtova won just 56% of her service points, hitting nine double faults and getting broken on four occasions. On return, the Czech won 42% of her return points and broke four times.
Fruhvirtova is now 6-4 in 2023, with every match on hard courts. She is consistent and anticipates well, but Sherif helped expose some flaws in her game. Fruhvirtova's serve is not great as-is, but on these slow, high-bouncing courts, it sits up like a meatball waiting to be smacked.
Kalinina can match Fruhvirtova's consistency from the baseline, but she gets better placement on her groundstrokes and is a better counterpuncher. In addition, the Ukrainian has more offensive capabilities from the baseline and is more capable of hitting through the slow conditions.
I also trust Kalinina to do a better job than Sherif of ripping through Fruhvirtova's weak serves. Kalinina should immediately put the Czech on the defensive immediately.
Pick: Kalinina -2.5 games (-104 via FanDuel)
