The WTA Indian Wells 1000 is heating up and the fun continues on Tuesday with more exciting matches.
I’ve found value on two of the day’s most fascinating matchups, featuring Sakkari vs Pliskova and Gauff vs Peterson.
Read on for my WTA Indian Wells picks for Tuesday, March 14.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
WTA Indian Wells Odds, Picks
Karolina Pliskova (-128) vs Maria Sakkari (+106)
11 a.m. ET
Karolina Pliskova cruised into the round of 16, beating Veronika Kudermetova 6-1 7-5. Despite winning just 42% of her second serves, Pliskova won 77% of her first serves and was only broken twice. She also won 49% of her return points, allowing her to break five times.
Pliskova is now an impressive 15-5 in 2023, with all matches on hard. As showcased against Kudermetova, the Czech has a big first serve that is crucial to her success. Pliskova is patient, has a high tennis IQ and hits with controlled aggression from the baseline into precise targets.
Her return has also been excellent in Indian Wells so far, as she has broken a combined 12 times in her two matches.
Maria Sakkari was inconsistent, yet managed to sneak by Anhelina Kalinina 3-6, 6-2 6-4. Sakkari won 71% of her first serves, but only 46% of her second serves. The Greek was strong on return, winning 40% of her first-serve returns and breaking on five occasions. From the baseline, Sakkari was very streaky.
Sakkari, a finalist at Indian Wells last year, has a strong 10-4 record on the season. Her game is based around her heavy forehand that she uses to control the baseline. Sakkari is fast, fit and spreads the court well. But, her backhand is hit-or-miss and she was shockingly erratic from both wings against Kalinina.
Pliskova is playing the better tennis and is more in control of her groundstrokes. The slower conditions are helping Pliskova to track down more balls and the Czech has done a great job thus far of staying patient in the conditions.
With her placement, she will also be able to effectively target Sakkari's weaker backhand wing.
Sakkari often lacked patience against Kalinina, struggled to hit her targets and only won because of a mental collapse from the Ukrainian. In her first match against Shelby Rogers, Sakkari played hit-or-miss tennis and got off to a slow start too.
The Greek is playing with fire at this tournament.
Pick: Pliskova ML (-128 via FanDuel)
Coco Gauff (-550) vs Rebecca Peterson (+380)
11 a.m. ET
Coco Gauff comfortably defeated Linda Noskova 6-4 6-3 in the third round. Despite winning just 44% of her second serves, Gauff won 89% of her first serves and wasn't broken. The American also won 50% of her second-serve returns, breaking three times.
Gauff is an incredible 13-3 on the season, with all matches
on hard. The American is enjoying the slow, high-bouncing conditions in Indian Wells. Gauff has a huge first serve and a massive backhand that dictates baseline play. She's quick, anticipates well and has a high tennis IQ. Gauff knows the right times to come to net too.
But, Gauff's forehand is inconsistent and her second serve can sit up in the box.
Rebecca Peterson continues to excel, beating Jil Teichmann 3-6, 6-3, 6-1. While Peterson hit seven aces and won 67% of her first serves, she was broken on four occasions. However, the Swede won 48% of her return points, allowing her to break seven times.
Peterson is quietly one of the most in-form players on the WTA Tour, posting a 15-3 record for the season. She has already won four matches in the Indian Wells conditions, including beating recent-Austin champion Marta Kostyuk in the first round.
She hits her spots on serve and plays with controlled aggression from the baseline. Peterson gets consistent depth on her groundstrokes but can ramp up the pace when an opening presents itself, especially with her forehand. Her court is positioning is also strong.
While Gauff is a deserved favorite, considering Peterson's current form this line feels like a bit much. Peterson is playing some of the best tennis of her career, as she has continued to showcase a high rally tolerance and controlled aggression throughout this season, with very few dips.
Peterson should be able to hang with Gauff in longer rallies until she can pressure her forehand side. And, while Gauff is reliant on her first serve, it's important to note that since the start of the WTA Merida qualifying until now (12 matches), Peterson hasn't allowed any opponent to win 70% of their first serves against her return.
Pick: Peterson +5.5 games (-125 via PointsBet)
